Is there a way to see when and where forecasts for different measurements on the economic calendar are released? Especially the CPI measurements. Auto mod removed this post earlier for not being interesting enough or something so here are some words to spice up this post. I don't know how much more I need to add, I can't exactly find the answer to my question anywhere so therefore I felt it was reasonable to post this question here. Thank you auto mod for keeping this post up.
Chris Giles, FT: In one chart - why the economic forecasts will be horrible in the autumn statement on Thursday check out the downgrade of the latest BoE forecast compared with the OBR one from March
100% probability of U.S. recession in coming year, according to Bloomberg Economics forecast model
The U.S. economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the latest Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday. The dire projection surfaced just weeks before national midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Just a week ago, President Joe Biden said a recession in the U.S. was unlikely and said any such downturn would be “very slight” if it did occur. Bloomberg Economics’ latest statistical projections showed a 100% probability of a recession within the next 12 months as the U.S. economy contends with decades-high inflation, Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes and mounting geopolitical tensions. The likelihood of a recession was 65% in the Bloomberg model’s most recent previous update. Generated by economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger, the model utilizes 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators to assess the odds of a downturn from one month to two years in the future. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier. The Bloomberg Economics model showed a 25% probability of a recession hitting even sooner — within the next 10 months — up from 0% in the previous release. Fears of a deep recession have surged in recent months as the Fed hikes interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. Investors believe the Fed risks “overtightening” monetary policy in reaction to higher prices and driving the economy into a sustained downturn. Segments of the U.S. economy, such as the housing market, have shown signs of struggle. The Fed has implemented supersized three-quarter-point interest-rate hikes at each of its last three meetings, with a fourth major increase expected when monetary-policy makers hold a two-day meeting Nov. 1–2. Despite the rate hikes, inflation ran at a hotter-than-expected 8.2% in September. Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and others have downplayed concerns about the economic outlook for months. “I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it will be a very slight recession. That is, we’ll move down slightly,” Biden said during an interview with CNN last week. “Look, it’s possible” he added. “I don’t anticipate it.” Yellen has suggested the central bank, which she led in 2014–18, would need both skill and luck to pilot the economy toward something other than a hard landing. U.S. GDP has declined for two straight quarters — a rule-of-thumb definition of a recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, a key economy tracker, has yet to formally declare one is underway. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists puts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier https://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-probability-of-u-s-recession-in-next-12-months-according-to-new-forecast-11666051473?mod=mw_latestnews
U.S. Economic Calendar Alert! (December 12th - December 16th): This Week's Major U.S. Economic Reports, Fed Speakers, and Statements
Good morning and happy Monday superstonk, I hope everyone had an awesome weekend! Please check back as this post will be updated as these indicators are released. If you would like to review last week's calendar, it can be viewed here. Thanks and I hope everyone has a terrific start to your Monday!
MONDAY, DEC. 12
Time(ET)
Report/Speech
Period
Previous
Actual
Superstonk Coverage:
11am
NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations
Nov.
5.9%
11am
NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations
Nov.
2.4%
2pm
Federal budget (compared with Nov. 2021)
Nov.
-$191 billion
TUESDAY, DEC. 13
Time(ET)
Report/Speech
Period
Previous
Actual
Superstonk Coverage:
6am
NFIB small-business index
Nov.
91.3
8:30am
Consumer price index
Nov.
0.4%
8:30am
Core CPI
Nov.
0.3%
8:30am
CPI (year-on-year)
Nov.
7.8%
8:30am
Core CPI (year-on-year)
Nov.
6.3%
8:30am
CPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling annualized rate)
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