Summary of Carter's Trading Strategy From TastyTrade Rising Star Interview
Greetings, Traders. Tom Sosnoff of TastyTrade interviewed a young trader named Carter in a live stream from Thu 1 Dec 2022. If you don't want to watch the interview, here's a summary of his strategy. Trader Carter Dobbelmann, a 20-year-old from San Jose, CA. Claim to Fame Turned $500 into $30,000 within 1.5 years. Affiliations:
He's on "Hourglass Trader." (Google it.)
He has replied to comments on the TastyTrade video.
Strategy: Selling Volatility
Exclusively trades options.
Roughly follows what TastyTrade recommends.¹
Initially, gambled with six significantly OTM Long Calls on TSLA, to go from $500 to $7,000 without knowing anything about the stock market, options, or trading and getting extremely lucky. Then, gambled $7,000 on AMZN calls and blew away $6,000 to drop down to $1,000. After learning a more reasonable way of trading, he looks for high-IV underlyings and:
Shorts puts for a credit;
Shorts call spreads for a credit; and
Shorts put spreads for a credit.
Because he sells high volatility, he's always looking at IV rank.
Trades with the trend of the underlying using vertical spreads.
Runs Short Call Spreads when a stock breaks down, and Short Puts Spreads when it rallies.
If he sees evidence that an active play is reversing, he'll add the opposite spread type from what he initially did. If he shorted a call spread, he'd short a put spread. Or if he shorted a put spread, he'd short a call spread.
Sets OTM striking prices, going a little above or below the expected move² based on ±1∙ σ and TA.
Uses DTE = [7, 30] days (usually not more than 25 days) on individual companies.
Uses DTE = [20, 30] on SPX.
Is indifferent to the underlying.
Says he plays indexes, e.g. SPX.
Initially, he traded CLOV and AMC.
He recently played SI and GME.
He places 10 to 15 trades per day.
He maintains a portfolio of fifteen concurrent positions with many different underlyings.
With a $30,000 account, he's likely risking $2,000 on each position.
He exits whenever he captures 25% to 50% of the maximum theoretical profit, usually closer to the latter.
Because he uses distributed expirations (e.g. DTE = 7, 14, 20 days), he takes profits virtually every day.
If he ran a Short Call Spread and the underlying kept moving up, he'd roll the spread up and widen the striking prices.
This implies that if he ran a Short Put Spread and the underlying keeps moving down, he'd roll the spread down and widen the striking prices.
He doesn't hold beyond the point of capturing 50% of the maximal theoretical profit to try to minimize risk.
He manages risk very actively and aggressively.
Unknown or Unanswered Questions
How he builds a watchlist.
What time(s) of day he typically enters/exits trades.
Quantity of each trade type.
Underlying selection criteria.
Trigger(s) to roll a trade.
Trigger(s) to exit a trade.
Average number of distinct underlyings in his portfolio.
Average profit per trade.
My Thoughts This gives us an outline of what he's doing, but the Devil is in the details, and a lot is missing. Without knowing what IV rank threshold (and other criteria) he's using for scanning for underlyings, the spread width, what decision-making criteria he uses to trigger a roll, etc., we just don't have enough information to be able to try to replicate this. We also don't know anything about how he's making decisions about where the market is likely to go, overall. Trading during the week of Mon 5 Dec 2022 might be dangerous because more macroeconomic data is being released. On Tue 13 Dec, the CPI will be released. The following day, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 pm ET, followed half an hour later by The JPow's press conference. It would be imprudent to try to trade oblivious to these important macroeconomic catalysts. This interview is interesting, but ultimately leaves us guessing. Without additional information and a comprehensive list of trades over a three-month period, so that we could look at the transaction times and replay the price action to understand the decision-making, I think that it's impossible to truly figure out what a trader is doing and whether it could have a sustainable edge. What would help the most is an Excel spreadsheet containing every trade's transaction time, action, and a justification for that action. It's impossible to reverse-engineer what we've heard in just the interview well enough to put it to the test. We can reduce the unknowns by just focusing on SPX. If someone can track Carter down, it would be interesting to get him to fill in the blanks. We really need to understand how he minimizes losses from positions that go against him. To manage risk "aggressively," what triggers him to roll a position, and how soon in the life cycle of a trade that's in trouble does he do this? Endnotes ¹TastyTrade's free Beginner Options Course is here. ²To calculate an expected move, see this. Future Summaries If you liked this summary and would like to see others, please upvote my post. Artem
I'm looking to trade forex in the United States with high leverage. Wanted to see if there are any recommended brokers that people are using. Was going to go with Coinexx but i wanted to reach out to the community first
Hello, I have been trading since the start of the pandemic, and I'm now at the point where I get payouts ranging from 400k - 950k php. I've always been told that forex trading is not yet taxable here; but now that I'm earning a hefty sum every month, I wanted to be sure. Do note, these profits are not gains from my own money, but rather a prop firm's. Prop firms are trading companies offering equity to traders who have passed their challenges/tests. Once passed they are given an account (usually demo accounts) and whatever profit the trader makes on that account, they are given a percentage. In my case, I have a 100k usd funded account with a prop firm in which I get paid out biweekly. Should I be doing something about taxes, may kailangan ba gawin para maiwasan ang kung ano mang complications in the future? I have no knowledge whatsoever about taxes and whatnot, all I know is how to trade. Thank you. edit: Took out the prop firm’s name as someone got triggered and called this post a scam advert. It’s not, I really am just looking for tax advice.
Does anyone else trade other markets when The forex market is choppy/not best time to trade?
I’m a full timer trader but noticed how badly the markets have been going. Last week was good, but now it’s awful. So just wondering if anyone has a “back up” market when they take a break/if you don’t take a break—what do you do? Thanks for any comments and/or feedback!
I’m trying to invest into forex as an 18 year old to fund for university. I’ve been meaning to move to Canada in fall 2023 from the uk for universities for personal reasons. I have around 330 pounds to begin with. Any tips?
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