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![Hướng dẫn chơi Binomo Forex trên điện thoại [Mới nhất 2019] - Binomo Việt Nam](https://external-preview.redd.it/RJJAzArUgnAVkFFcMkiY3pWLDjTtv4kdXMCVD-0ZNKU.jpg?width=320&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8569fa53fc7a51b5c76ffde391779703a594d272 "Hướng dẫn chơi Binomo Forex trên điện thoại [Mới nhất 2019] - Binomo Việt Nam") | submitted by binomovietnam to u/binomovietnam [link] [comments] |
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 | tl;dr Short-Term Doom, Long-Term Prosperity submitted by BigGayBearAteUrTendy to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] I will start with energy, because that is where the economy starts. Everything is energy. All production, all consumption. Debt is just a claim on future energy/resources, and is typically purchased on the expectation of repayment of principal/interest (money is just tokenized energy), based upon an expectation of real economic growth of the debt issuer (assuming interest rates are positive). When you live in a world where everyone has more energy to use and consume on an annualized basis, economies see real growth. The opposite also usually holds true, absent financialization tricks to mask the decline. So, where are we today? Conveniently BP has excellent data on this stuff going back to 1965, and keeps it here: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html You can download a spreadsheet there called “Statistical Review of World Energy – all data, 1965-2021.” It has a handy tab called “Primary Energy – Cons capita,” which tells you what the annual per capita consumption of energy is in gigajoules, broken out into various geographic groupings. Here is what that looks like for roughly the first decade of data: https://preview.redd.it/x1ktkb4w0jm91.png?width=1227&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b950b10e1cbcea873d19c403181ae0fa061f53 Notice how energy consumption per capita is trending upwards from 1965 to 1973? Those were pretty good times. America had cheap and abundant domestically produced conventional onshore crude oil, and a massive manufacturing base that thrived off of it in the glory days after WWII when we dominated pretty much every market that existed. Unfortunately, in 1973 this thing called an energy crisis happened, as our conventional production was going into decline, and Europe, Japan, and other economic competitors were back on their feet after WWII and seeking to increase their share of the economic pie (using energy). Note the consistent declines in global energy consumption per capita and OECD consumption per capita during 1974 and 1975. So, what did the S&P 500 do in 1973 when this energy crisis suddenly arrived on the market? https://preview.redd.it/pfhx27e01jm91.png?width=930&format=png&auto=webp&s=1408e4cdce1f14c650e20cf0929fa13d90efb585 From January ’73 to October ’74, the S&P 500 lost about half of its value. Business plans, debt, and earnings all ran into the hard wall of an energy crunch and reset market expectations as inflation driven by energy shortages reared its ugly head. The E on the P/E side of the equation changed suddenly, and anything based on TTM or pre-crunch estimates was total garbage. Around this same timeframe, some relevant events also happened. In 1971, Nixon took us off the gold standard and ended the monetary system (Bretton Woods) that had existed since WWII ended. Prior to that dollars could be exchanged for gold at a set rate, but some stagflation in 1971 made the whole system unstable and unworkable for America, so it had to go. By the time the energy crunch hit in 1973, the US knew it needed to do something to stabilize its supply of energy, its global reserve currency, and its access to real assets to fund future growth. So in July 1974, Nixon sends his new Treasury Secretary, former Salomon Brothers bond trader Bill Simon, to Saudi Arabia on a top secret mission. Bloomberg learned about it from a FOIA request decades later, and wrote a cool article about it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret Here’s the tl;dr on the article, from the article itself: “The basic framework was strikingly simple. The U.S. would buy oil from Saudi Arabia and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment. In return, the Saudis would plow billions of their petrodollar revenue back into Treasuries and finance America’s spending” That word petrodollar is also important. In early 1945 FDR entered into an alliance with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia agreed to sell and price oil in dollars. Most other oil producing nations of the world quickly joined the club, and we liked this. If countries outside of the Soviet system needed energy to grow their economies, they needed reserves of dollars, and debt denominated in dollars. We will return to this topic later. So, we had obtained a fat stack of funding from the Saudis to dig our way out of this energy crisis thing. The process was pretty rocky, resulting in the 1970s, but eventually this nice man named Paul Volcker ratcheted interest rates high enough so that the stagflation could be beaten into submission, while around the same time enough capital had reached E&P companies to enable capex to flood the market with new cheap energy, turning boomtowns of the 1970s like Houston into ghost towns in the 1980s. Newly developed offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico and North Sea pumped energy like it was going out of style, and the market had a really good time for about 20 years. Since all of that energy came online in the early 1980s, global consumption per capita has generally trended upwards every year until 2018. We kept finding new ways to economically pull oil and gas out of the ground (new fields, deepwater, fracking shale), and get it into the hands of consumers so they could use more of it to grow the economy. This lifted billions of people out of poverty, allowed the agricultural revolution to feed them with nitrogen fertilizers made from natural gas feedstock, and provided predictably priced (mostly) inputs for heavy industry. This was an all around great thing for business, and American Boomers as a group made a metric fuckton of money riding the wave during the entirety of their working lives. So, what does the most recent decade of BP per capita energy consumption data look like? https://preview.redd.it/ee84vir41jm91.png?width=1539&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8acb71d9654f5848e6a26295e66affddd8696ec Pretty much a plateau globally from 2011-16, small increase in 2016, top in 2018, and downwards trend since (with 2020 being a big down anomaly for obvious reasons). There’s variation around that whether you look at OECD, EU, Non-OECD, but the peak for all of them is 2018. People have less energy to work with today than they did four years ago. Unless more energy gets injected into the system, it is very hard to stimulate real growth, and financial instruments (like bonds) that track anticipated real growth reflect that with high prices and low (or even negative) interest rates. In a world where everything is growing, I want my loans to at least reflect the real rate of economic growth, otherwise I am losing money. Looked at bond yields over the past decade lately? They didn’t seem to be pricing in a lot of real growth at any duration. Why do you think that is? People can argue about the definition of peak oil all they want, but 2018 appears to be at least a localized peak when scaled to global population. The key to reversing this is producing enough energy at a reasonable price, so that people can start using more of it. That would reflect an economy that is growing in real terms. That takes lots of money. Which brings us to the next chapter of this story, a very brief overview of geopolitical stuff that happened from the fall of the Soviet Union to the recent start of World War III. The year is 1991, the Soviet Union falls and this country called Russia suddenly has a lot of available energy reserves that previously weren’t getting a lot of circulation outside of the walled-off Soviet Sphere. These abundant energy reserves were recognized immediately for what they could be: a giant engine of additional economic growth to fuel the 1990s and beyond. That’s what happened. A country in Europe called Germany had this bright idea to build out a massive heavy industrial and manufacturing base, fueled by cheap Russian natural gas, which could easily be pipelined in from the fields in western Russia and eastern Ukraine. The plan worked, and Germany became an economic powerhouse with a massive trade surplus. Germany did not control the energy it used, though, so its position was precarious. To make matters worse from an economic perspective, over time Germany decided it did not like cheap energy due to environmental concerns, and had this very intense political aversion to nuclear power (another cheap, energy-dense method of generating baseload electricity). So, Germany decided to get rid of its nuclear reactor fleet, reduce its number of coal powerplants, and replace them with natural gas power turbines for baseload electricity generation, supplemented by semi-reliable solar and wind power, which is not suitable for baseload generation. Eventually this brutal mafia boss named Putin takes over the country, and becomes President for Life of Russia’s energy reserves. He does not care for America, has actively sought to collapse us for decades, did not like the fact that he was forced to sell oil in dollars, and would do anything he thought he could get away with to make Russia strong vs. its competitors, especially America. Fast forward to his invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. The U.S./Eurozone/Allied response was to hit Putin and Russia with sanctions. Much like prioexisting sanctions on Iraqi or Iranian oil, these sanctions did nothing to actually keep his oil and gas off the market. Putin did not like the sanctions or Allied support for Ukrainians, so he decided to weaponize his most strategic resource: natural gas flows to Europe. Eventually we got to here, where Germany’s 30-year economic miracle died almost overnight: https://preview.redd.it/kx4ympc81jm91.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9fc1c5da1f48225830d4b015bad4be77f41d1915 That is decades of GDP that just got wiped out, on top of all sorts of weird multi-sigma anomalies like $1.5 Trillion margin calls in European electricity futures markets. None of the stonks you own have priced in this reality. Not even remotely. Bonds have seen a ton of volatility (check the MOVE index), and it is really hard to find buyers for treasuries with this much uncertainty around future real economic growth prospects, while this thing called the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and starting to sell lots of bonds into this market. There are billions upon billions of dollars of formerly productive assets sitting in Europe now, completely cut off from reasonably priced energy supplies that allow those assets to be economically competitive. Capitalism really does not like these sorts of inefficiencies, and is designed to fix them, so that costs of production can be as low as possible and competitive. It takes staggering amounts of resources and capital to just move production like that from where it is no longer competitive, to areas where it can be (like on the opposite side of the Atlantic, close to America’s and Canada’s abundant energy resources). Russia probably wouldn’t mind buying that stuff at firesale prices and building out a manufacturing economy of its own next to its own energy resources, but America really would not like that, and the existence of sanctions makes that maneuver pretty difficult. As far as America is concerned, we paid for all of that stuff through an investment called the Marshall Plan about 70 years ago, specifically so that Russia could not have it. And now we come to the Federal Reserve and the Petrodollar. The federal reserve has only two priorities: (1) full employment; and (2) price stability. Employment is currently close to all-time highs. Price stability is at a place not seen since the 1970s. As we have reached the edge of our petri dish during a supercycle of energy and economic growth, the fuel is dwindling, from both natural (depleting reserves) and unnatural (war) causes. The show simply cannot go on at these levels. We are constantly bumping up against the limits of energy, and it is creating chaos in the availability of reasonably priced energy, which affects commodities and food, which causes inflation, and which restricts real growth. The energy crunch is here. You can’t just print more dollars and create more energy instantaneously. Europe is about to try by printing Euros to provide subsidies for energy that it doesn’t produce, which isn’t priced in Euros, alongside price caps over the world’s most essential commodity, which it doesn’t control. The UK is getting in on this act, too. This will cause two things: (1) hyperinflation; and (2) energy shortages and rationing. https://preview.redd.it/e72wzpkc1jm91.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc5252a13cee26d535ac3bb6a134969d2d0c27c6 Meanwhile, that Putin guy is now demanding payment in Rubles for his oil and gas. He wants valuable real assets (foreign currency, hard assets, technology transfers, whatever) for his stuff, just like America gets from the Petrodollar. He is also refusing to sell it to anyone who tries to cap the price of his stuff. This, more than the Ukraine invasion itself, has caused World War III. It is a direct attack on the supremacy of the Petrodollar, which America cannot abide. The Petrodollar is central to our national security strategy. Recently Saudi Arabia has entered the chat, and agreed to sell its oil to Europe and Asia at reduced rates (not fully priced in dollars). It is not clear to me at this point if this is a temporary relief valve to our allies to relieve forex pressures, or if the Saudis have allied with Putin. The fog of war is real, and events are unfolding in real time, but markets hate uncertainty. Turning back quickly to the hyperinflation issue, what will be the effect of the European countries printing not-dollars to subsidize energy they don’t produce or control in sufficient quantities to meet their needs? The hyperinflation will definitely affect citizens and some businesses quite harshly (Goldman Sachs says 20%+ in the UK, and a government spokesperson affirmed that this was a reasonable estimate). It will also have the effect of concentrating national wealth in a handful of energy production and distribution related industries that are vital to the national security of those countries. Enter the Federal Reserve and America’s greatest weapon (we actually use it, unlike our nuclear stockpile): interest rates and the Petrodollar. Used properly interest rates and the petrodollar become a many birds with one stone solution to a lot of nagging problems. One, with recent large pro-Putin protests in the Czech Republic, Germany, and other Eurozone countries facing staggering and bankrupting energy bills, there is a risk that these countries could leave Team America, and try to cut a deal with Putin. It would take a while to get past the sanctions, but where there’s political will there’s a way. This outcome is unacceptable to America and can never be permitted. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and sells its massive bond stockpile to combat inflation arising out of the energy crunch, much like it did in the 1970s, all sorts of second and third-order effects start happening, like sovereign debt crises. Countries keep reserves of dollars to buy energy, and as a result of regularly needing to transact in dollars, issue dollar-denominated debt. As interest rates in the US rise and bonds are sold, the global supply of dollars decreases. It is harder to get dollars, and foreign currencies dependent upon a stable or growing supply of dollars depreciate. They need to use more of their own currency to get the same amount of dollars that they used to. Much like the energy situation, a supply/demand imbalance arises. Also, quite a lot of the record high levels of corporate debt around the world are priced in dollars. That debt was also issued predicated upon growth assumptions that probably did not include an energy crisis, World War III, and stagflation. As you might imagine, this can cause a lot of problems. Why then, do you ask, would America keep raising rates and selling bonds when markets are screaming “hey guys, big energy crisis over here, maybe turn on the liquidity a bit more”? Well, the amount of liquidity it would take to patch the gaping hole in German GDP is beyond anything we can reasonably do. That would lead to hyperinflation in America, which can never be allowed. The only thing that truly threatens the accumulated wealth of a nation (which the Federal Reserve protects in America) is hyperinflation. It killed the Weimar Republic, and it will kill what we currently recognize as the European economy. The wealthy and wealth of this country can survive market crashes, but not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is an economic weapon of mass destruction, and you just can’t predict the outcome with any reasonable certainty (other than real bad). Also, we are kinda tapped on liquidity after the Covid money fountain, and finding ourselves at the end of a business/debt cycle while we bump up against the chaotic limits of available energy. So, what happens when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and sells bonds to continue tightening liquidity into this mess? Something in the global economy pops, starting in Europe (remember that $1.5 Trillion margin call in electricity futures). Hyperinflation destroys their economies, and they need a bailout/reset. In return for the bailout, we can give them the dollars they desperately want (we can create them at will). In return we only ask for all of their critical, national-security adjacent energy assets, which American capital can then operate for them starting from Europe’s new, lower baseline of reset economic growth. Some of the plant and equipment (natural gas turbines, very nice), along with intellectual property, can also be used to develop a more robust manufacturing economy here in America, close to comparatively cheap and abundant supplies of energy. We have done this with our allies before. In March of 1941, before America entered WWII, we sent the UK about 40 mothballed, decrepit destroyers from storage, and all we asked for in return was postwar dissolution of the British Empire and control over the global monetary system. It was a really amazing deal for America. We have profited immensely. The other part of the puzzle is the staggering amounts of capital that will be needed to properly invest in energy and manufacturing infrastructure in America over the next decade. We basically have to onshore Germany, and replicate their trade balance that just vanished, plus some if we want actual growth. That is just a crazy amount of money, but we have to do it. The problem is that a huge chunk of our economy’s money is tied up in the stonks you retards have been buying hand over fist at a time when bond yields were screaming “NO REAL GROWTH.” Reversing this trend means inversing you. Your stonks gotta be crushed so that we can reset our growth baseline back to something reasonable, providing a multi-year runway of growth that will not bump up against energy limitations and make everything chaotic again. Once that happens, the Fed can turn the money spigot back on and the high interest rates will ensure that capital is allocated efficiently to the sectors where it will be most productive, like energy and manufacturing. In the short to medium term this is going to be a rather volatile and unpleasant process, if you are not aware of what needs to happen. The old world of globalization is over. The heavy industry and production will be relocated here on our fortress continent, where we can keep our investment safe from bad actors like Russia in an increasingly dangerous world. The pivot is not coming until the reset happens. If you love America, sell your stonks and wait for the crash (or gamble on the timing of it like a degenerate with puts or UVXY, which I am doing), then go long as balls American treasuries, energy, manufacturing, and short dollars so the rest of the world can buy all the stuff we are about to make so we can all prosper. The Fed is on our side. You can make money in any market as long as you are flexible. In the meantime I will conclude with a few fun bearporn centerfolds that I collected from around the internet: https://preview.redd.it/yxbr956s2jm91.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf976633a7498824a426680451c0039b476cabf0 https://preview.redd.it/p7oi813t2jm91.png?width=951&format=png&auto=webp&s=f84a28473396b9ce103b1d50fe1634ba001cd238 https://preview.redd.it/yxdxyo6u2jm91.jpg?width=1074&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ebc896da3842649374b72ce046d87a7cb94f701 |
submitted by antoniotugnoli to WordsWithFriends [link] [comments]
 | I know it's been a long time since you've seen me post a DD and update to what's going on in the world of steel. submitted by vitocorlene to Vitards [link] [comments] The rumors of my demise are false and I have not gone into hiding or as many have speculated, "witness protection", but rather I have been inundated with life. Before I get into what will likely be walls and walls of text, fancy graphs and information that will likely feel like you are being reeducated like this: https://preview.redd.it/ckwy49pop9u71.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=18c393fdfb85831703f2f4251d7dcc00d7870a03 I want to touch on myself and this sub. I have been lurking in the shadows for quite a while and honestly I've started this DD about 10 different times over the past few weeks and just couldn't find the time to deliver something I would be proud of. Let's start with this sub - I absolutely love it and the people that have come here to follow the thesis. With that being said, I stated months ago that I did not want this sub to be about one person - me. My goal from the beginning was always to educate everyone about the commodity I love so much - steel, but it was more important to create a community of sharing and fellowship. There are so many other brilliant people that have posted here, many with much more to offer and have done so out of the kindness of their hearts and to help others become more educated and intelligent investors. Sure, we can have debates and argue "Bull" & "Bear" cases for everything, IT'S ALWAYS BEEN ENCOURAGED. Echo Chambers benefit no one other than people with big egos. I have also, ALWAYS said, if you have ideas that will make money, share them! I love steel, but I love money more. This sub is only as strong as the fabric of the people that decide to interact and share ideas here. If you want to complain, please do so in a civil and well thought out manner - always be kind - trust me, you'll feel better for it. Now, before we take the journey together down the rabbit hole, I wanted to briefly touch on my absence from posting. As I said, I've been here the entire time watching and there are quite a few people here that I engage with and talk to daily. When I was posting consistently, there seemed to be a lot of apprehension into "if this play is so good, why do you have to keep reminding us??" I got a lot of complaints about the constant "pumping". It was never "pumping" - it was me doing what I do throughout my life and that is committing 100%, actually, overcommitting to be honest. My updates were meant to give everyone visibility into what I still believe to be the MOST SIGNIFICANT TRANSFORMATIONAL SHIFT in the history of the steel business, with the last being the invention of the EAF. Then, I backed off posting, not because I believed the thesis was dead or prices came down on our beloved steel tickers. As soon as I stopped, then the other side of the crowd was unhappy. "Thesis Dead" "No Lambo" "These bags are heavy" Here's one from the other day from u/needafiller "Hey man, I haven't checked my portfolio of MT Jan calls in 2 months. But judging from your MIA status and the status of the sub, I'm guessing my calls will expire worthless. Thanks for teaching me a valuable and expansive lesson" I'm guessing he meant "expensive". . . .regardless, I have realized a couple things:
The amount of messages I get asking my opinion on portfolios and trades is sheer lunacy and became overwhelming. Many weren't even very friendly, much like it was my obligation to answer without even a greeting or a pleasantry. Ok, I know I've ranted quite a bit and I'm sure some of you are about to have a full-blown seizure from all of the eye-rolling and pontificating, but let me say one last thing about me and I'll move on. I am a person, I have a demanding career, I have a family, I have a life outside of here that I ended up neglecting trying to pour myself into this sub for almost the past year. There are only so many hours in a day and time is the most valuable thing we all have, next to our health. We all need to have priorities and this sub is going to have to move down my list a bit. I am honored that many of you think so highly of what I share, it is greatly appreciated. I will share when I can, but I have to say - there are many here that are doing a great job and carrying the baton - thanks! Now, let's get on with the show. There is just so much to unpack that I feel like I need to start over, but I'm not going to do that. The information I shared is there and it is still relevant today and part of the ever-evolving thesis. For those that keep asking questions - please read all my past DD's to get up to speed. So many topics - where do we start????? China, China, China has really been the hot topic of not only the steel world, but also the global economy. The GDP slowdown, Evergrande, power outages, property market, construction, coal, steel output cut to multi-year lows, etc. It's a lot to digest and well the market has been choking on it for the past 30+ days. Everyone knows that China has always been the world's market setter for steel prices, as they are the largest manufacturer as a country, collectively in the world. The way it used to work was China would export their low cost steel and create a domino effect across the globe - lowering many countries steel prices by putting pressure on their domestic manufacturers and many times forcing them to export to other countries their excess capacities. We are no longer seeing the deluge of low cost Chinese steel flowing out of the country. Instead, there is less and less available month over month, as now production has not only been cut, but so have the hours in which Chinese manufacturers can operate. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2021/10/16/2003766173 The Kaohsiung-based company urged Taiwanese steel-using companies to take advantage of the lower steel prices to prepare for Environmental Social Governance (ESG) challenges it sees coming down the line for related industries. “We hope that our downstream buyers can take full advantage of this period of price stability in steel to accelerate their ESG transition efforts and be prepared for the worldwide trend in decarbonization,” China Steel said in a statement. The company also said it plans to reduce carbon emissions from 2018 levels by 7 percent by 2025, and to be completely carbon neutral by 2050. “We will be following the lead of Tata Steel Europe and Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Steel in adding a carbon surcharge,” the company said. China Steel said that several factors are indicating a rebound in Asian steel prices in the fourth quarter, including a rise in demand due to a global economic recovery as well as a surge in raw material costs. “The strict ‘dual-control’ electricity use policy mandated that many steelmakers in China can only run during off-peak hours from November 15 to March 15, 2022,” the company said. “We predict that crude steel production will decrease by at least 30 percent,” it added. In addition to predicting tighter supplies due to electricity shortages, the company said that the price of coking coal has broken US$400 per tonne, while iron ore, which hit bottom last month, has risen by nearly 40 percent. “Given the tightness in supply of various steel smelting materials and the Baltic Dry Index has reached a 13-year high, we expect Asian steel prices to rebound,” China Steel said. The Baltic Dry Index is a bellwether index for global dry bulk shipping, which has surged alongside demand for coal imports amid a global energy crunch. Global and domestic demand for steel is expected to be strong, said the state-run company, which has a committee decide the price of steel for domestic delivery, monthly for some products and quarterly for others. The World Steel Association predicted that “the demand for global steel will grow by 4.5 percent year-on-year to 1.86 billion tonnes, and that a further 2.2 percent growth year-on-year is expected in 2022,” China Steel said, adding that it expects a bullish steel market until next year. China’s production in September fell by close to 20 percent year on year (YoY) and around 11 percent month on month (MoM). This, however, is positive for steel companies as it points to structural changes that are likely to be seen in the global steel environment, which has been the key focus for many months. We are in an environment of high input costs with coal, fuel, transportation, labor - the inflation that was called transitory is very much here and I believe it is here to stay for quite a long time. https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-10-12/These-commodities-are-most-affected-by-high-energy-prices-Capital-Economics.html The commodities that are likely to be most affected by the looming energy crisis are the industrial metals, agriculture, and the precious metals sector, Capital Economics commodities economist Edward Gardner said in a report. "Historically, energy prices have been most correlated with industrial metal prices, followed by agricultural prices, and precious metals prices. This is also evident from the annual correlations of different commodity prices with energy prices," the report said. The higher the energy prices rise, the more it will cost to produce these commodities. "The precise association between energy prices and other commodity prices, however, depends on both the energy intensity of production and the similarity of underlying demand drivers," the report clarified. Industrial metals seem to be the most correlated with energy prices. "It is clear that industrial metal prices track energy prices the most closely over time, which is mainly because the drivers of demand are similar. That said, industrial metals, like many commodities, require large energy inputs to produce, which is another reason why their prices tend to move together," Gardner said. The metals sector accounts for 10% of global energy usage. More specifically, steel production takes up 6.5% of global energy usage. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Energy-Crisis-Is-Hurting-Metal-Producers-In-A-Big-Way.html Power prices have been rising all year. The situation, however, has become particularly acute since the summer. Natural gas prices have spiked and coal prices on the spot market have risen strongly. The shortage of natural gas in Europe has driven the cost increases. Furthermore, it has encouraged power producers to shift to coal, just as global coal prices have surged on the back of output shortfalls in China and India. Those shortfalls have resulted in increased imports by the world’s two largest thermal coal consumers. (Also the world's largest steel producers) Steel mills are already imposing power cost increases of up to Euros 50 per ton on long products to cover mostly power-related costs but, to a lesser extent, transport costs within Europe, too. The region is suffering from an acute lack of drivers and transport capacity. https://preview.redd.it/s2cejld0xau71.jpg?width=473&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=442c5289871f24cc19ea091c7419634d91c4d4fe Both production cutbacks and energy-specific surcharges are likely to become an increasing feature of the European metal market this year. They will probably also be a factor into next year, as high electricity, coal and natural gas costs are going to be sustained through the winter season, with little hope that inventory levels will be replenished — and, therefore, easing of prices — before next summer. I expect prices for steel products to stay high on the back on increased inputs as well as supply chain restocking world-wide for the next 12-18 months. The global recovery is still uneven and cutbacks will further exacerbate supply shortages, causing demand to push prices higher. Also, steel manufacturers are passing on the increased costs of steelmaking by not only increasing prices, but also in the form of surcharges. My personal opinion is that we see steel prices continue to rise on the back of inflationary pressures, as well as increased prices of many other commodities. That brings me to the US and the steel market here, which remains red hot in terms of demand with supply still not catching up. Depending on the product, lead times are anywhere from 6 to 22 weeks. Remember, the US is an "insulated market" in many regards due to the deep moat right now that is the Section 232 tariffs as well as the nosebleed costs of ocean freight from other countries to the US. I'll first touch on shipping costs. The problem is the lack of vessels, especially the smaller ships that handle bulk freight. The Supermax vessels are all transporting 20' and 40' containers - which is also a nightmare in itself. Prior to COVID, the cost to move a ton of steel from Europe and Asia was roughly $20 per metric ton. Today, it is $160 per metric ton. That is an 800% increase. Then you have congestion problems all over the US, which is extending lead times, increasing costs of trucking and rail. As of this morning: Rail Terminal Updates: BNSF & UP/LAX/LGB BNSF:
Due to increased volume, most terminals are experiencing congestion issues, including Philadelphia, Savannah, Miami, Houston, Seattle, Los Angeles/Long Beach. 1. U.S. East Coast: Philadelphia:
Around 70 container ships are still waiting off the coast of California to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Los Angeles:
Houston:
It's why I told everyone to do their Christmas shopping back in June. It's only showing signs of worsening as global supply chains keep trying to catch up and restock, but demand continues to outpace supply. Now the tariffs. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-hopeful-reaching-deal-with-eu-steel-tariffs-by-end-october-source-2021-10-14/ "We're hopeful we can reach agreement by the end of the month," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. A steel industry source said Tai and the EU were edging closer to a likely agreement that would replace the Section 232 tariffs with a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) arrangement that would allow duty-free entry of a specified volume of EU steel, with tariffs applied to higher volumes. This person said that talks are "going well," but was reluctant to say that a deal would be reached by Oct. 31. Dombrovskis has expressed openness to a quota arrangement similar to those that Canada and Mexico have with the United States, but said a deal is needed by early November. Other EU officials have told Reuters that much depends on the volume of steel allowed duty free into U.S. ports. The industry source said EU negotiators were seeking to base the quota on U.S. import volumes prior to the imposition of the 232 tariffs in 2018, while U.S. negotiators want to base the quotas on lower volumes after the tariffs were imposed. I've said for a while now that I believe the elimination of these tariffs would be good for the US, as it would bring extra supply into a market that is in dire need of surplus material. It would give price stability to US manufacturing that would be able to plan better and buy material at a discount from current spot prices in the US. We all knew $2,000/ton steel would not last forever, even if it normalizes around $1,200 to $1,400 per ton, it would still be 250%+ above historic norms. $CLF, $NUE, $STLD, $X, etc. would all still throw off obscene amounts of FCF at these levels. In addition, there would be a quota system in place, which means the supply into the US is FINITE. There would not be a flood of cheap import steel, but rather supplemental supply that would benefit US manufacturers and also, most notably, still my baby - $MT. EU HRC is approx. $950/MT, add the 25% tariff of $237.50 = $1187.50/MT Freight is $160/MT Total landed to a US port is $1,347.50/MT, then you have unloading and reloading to a truck or rail costs and then the trucking or rail freight costs, which could land you into the Midwest at as much as $1,450/MT. That price would be great today, but shipments from Europe would not arrive in the US until February at the earliest. February US Midwest futures sit at $1,380 today. https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-steel-coil-contracts So, doesn't make much sense. However, take away $237.50/MT and it makes a lot of sense. We will see how this plays out, but I do not see it as a detriment to US manufacturers. It could be a big win for EU steel manufacturers however, especially if ocean freight decreases, but that is not looking likely until at least Q3 of next year in my opinion. Many executives I talk to believe 2022 will be a carbon copy of 2021 in terms of lack of supply heading into next year and prices moving back up throughout the year due to demand and inflationary pressures. Let's jump back to inflation for a bit because I think it's a real important concept and we have been told for months now that it was transitory. I never really agreed with that assessment, how inflation is measured and the commodities that are all lumped together. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/15/us-economy-inflation-uncomfortable/ Regardless, news last week that U.S. inflation is running at a 13-year high of 5.4 percent confirmed what many Americans already know as they juggle their budgets: Food, energy and shelter costs are all rising rapidly, adding to the strain Americans were already dealing with from the higher costs of hard-to-find goods such as cars, dishwashers and washing machines. Workers are demanding pay increases because they can see their wages aren’t buying as much with so many everyday necessities costing more, including rent. That leads companies to hike prices more, then workers turn around and demand another pay raise. Economists call this phenomenon a “wage-price spiral.” It often leads to sustained high inflation that forces the Fed to step in to stop it. Rising food, gas and rent costs hit the budgets of low- and middle-income Americans hard. While wages have been rising at the fastest pace in decades, the gains have been eaten up entirely by rising costs, Labor Department data shows. This prompts workers to ask for more pay. “The wage-price spiral has already begun,” said economist Sung Won Sohn of Loyola Marymount University and SS Economics. “In the financial markets and the economy, the biggest long-term problem we have is inflation. You can’t turn the inflation rate on and off.” Higher wages, in my opinion, are not transitory. Higher steel prices, also in my opinion, are not transitory either. This is where we get back to the most fundamental change in steel making - which is the "Green" initiative and becoming carbon neutral. This is going to require A LOT of scrap and from the beginning of this thesis I said steel prices in the future would be fought over the cost of scrap and more importantly - the supply of scrap. I'll get back to scrap shortly, but I believe inflation will be another catalyst to keep steel prices elevated for the foreseeable future. We hear about inflation here in the US, but a lot of people don't realize that China is actually exporting inflation at this point. Remember earlier when I talked about China being able to deflate steel prices across the world? They have been able to export deflation for decades by having stagnant wages and manipulating their currency through low interest rates. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457920-are-we-entering-a-commodity-supercycle Today, inflation "revenge" has caught up with China. Like everybody else in the world, China is dealing with all kinds of commodity shortages including copper, coal, steel, and iron ore, chickens, lumber, etc. China has its own supply problems and rising prices. While China hopes this is temporary, its economy has developed enough in recent decades, and workforce wages have risen enough, that the days when they can supply goods at "lower prices" to keep inflation at bay are over. As material prices soar, China's factory-gate inflation has hit 13-year high levels. China is now set to be exporting inflation to the world. Given that China is facing high internal demand from its own population and that the earning power of its citizens is increasing, it is becoming virtually impossible to pressure its workforce to accept the "old cheap" wages that it used to pay its labor. Devaluing their currencies is no longer a viable option they can use either as an indirect way to lower their labor purchasing power. It all comes down to "scarcity of natural resources". No wonder why prices of all kinds of commodities are rising. Then we have the DXY, which has actually strengthened over the past 3 months from a low of 89.6 to 93.9, it is still flat on the 1 year chart. https://preview.redd.it/8kk1d76qmau71.png?width=1786&format=png&auto=webp&s=b43119879071efcf8af30603c8b6143e0c0485fd https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp Weakening U.S. DollarA combination of the budget deficit and the current account deficit is seen as a long-term structural driver of a weaker U.S. dollar. The speed and size of government stimulus packages in response to the global pandemic have been unprecedented. As a result of the federal government pumping trillions into the economy, the twin deficits reached all-time lows earlier this year. https://preview.redd.it/np8phln4rau71.png?width=1252&format=png&auto=webp&s=54c2c22deced5b6d6fa0ebbbd1f5a37da26735e8 The U.S. budget deficit rose to $2.71 trillion through August, on track to be the second-largest shortfall in history due to trillions of dollars in COVID relief. Given the likelihood of a two-year gap between the beginning of the Fed’s tapering of bond purchases and the first interest rate increase, the dollar may struggle to rise past its current levels through the end of 2022 The value of the dollar is very important for commodity prices because the U.S. dollar is the benchmark pricing mechanism for most commodities. Commodity prices have an inverse relationship with the dollar value, so a declining dollar means rising prices. As the world starts to reopen and the recovery becomes more global and even, I believe we will see the USD weaken against other currencies, especially if we see a passage of the $3.5T, $2.5T or whatever package that President Biden is trying to get through Congress as it will mean more money printing and higher corporate taxes. Speaking of Infrastructure - that will be yet another catalyst for steel prices in the United States. There are plenty of positives in the demand outlook, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill with about $550 billion in additional spending planned. In Nucor's July 22, Q2 earnings call, CEO Leon Topalian said the infrastructure bill should boost steel demand "by as much as 5 million tons per year for every $100 billion of new investment." This afternoon $STLD reported earnings. Steel Dynamics earnings were seen exploding to $4.95 from 51 cents a year ago, according to Zacks Investment Research. Revenue was seen more than doubling to $4.99 billion. Steel Dynamics earnings came in $4.96 a share, just beating views. However, another consensus forecast had EPS at $4.57, which STLD comfortably beat. Revenue leapt 118.5% to $5.09 billion. "We continue to see strong steel demand coupled with moderating, but still historically low customer inventories throughout the supply chain," CEO Mark Millett said in a statement. "We believe this momentum will continue and that our fourth quarter consolidated earnings could represent another record performance." Other strengths include lean stocks throughout the supply chain, with automakers needing to rebuild "staggeringly low" inventories, he said. The lift in oil prices also could boost demand in the oil sector that's been a drag throughout the pandemic. Steel prices have always been strongly correlated with oil prices and I believe we will see this continue. That brings me to scrap. The big news last week was $CLF entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ferrous Processing and Trading Company. https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/news/news-releases/detail/533/cleveland-cliffs-enters-the-scrap-business-and-announces This completes the vertical integration for $CLF and LG knows that the future will be largely dependent on EAF manufacturing and the utilization of scrap as the input of choice. Transaction rationale:
Global View of Scrap: Uptrend of international scrap market continues unabated- Over the past week, the international scrap market has continued its uptrend unabated. In Turkey’s import scrap market, the price has increased by 7.57 percent or $34/mt week on week for prime HMS I/II 80:20 scrap. The month-on-month price rise is now 12.9 percent. Higher freight costs boosted by strong demand are still pushing up prices in Turkey, while market players have started to say that the psychological threshold of $500/mt will be reached and exceeded in the coming week. Some mills are already concluding deep sea scrap deals for December shipments to secure needed tonnages.- On the US side, October scrap prices were settled less than a week ago and, now, many in the market have turned their sights to the next buy cycle, which will start in just over two weeks. There are numerous planned maintenance outages that had been scheduled to take place in the last four months of the year. Market players agree that a downward movement is unlikely in the local US scrap market, though, as far as how much upside the market could experience, sentiment is largely mixed. Whereas some believe that shredded scrap, which settled at roughly $450-455/gt in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, could tick up to $470-475/gt next month (with similar upticks seen for other scrap grades in this region), others believe that that the only mills that will pay higher prices next month are those that decreased prices down during this month’s buy cycle. - South Korean mills have continued to raise their import scrap prices in deals concluded from Russia and Japan. SteelOrbis has learned that Dongkuk Steel has bought 27,000 mt of Russian A3 grade scrap at $534/mt CFR, $51/mt higher than the previous deal in late September. Suppliers from the US are going to target not less than $545/mt CFR for HMS I in South Korea in the next round of sales, while the previous sale price was rumored at $522.5/mt CFR. Demand for the lower grade ex-Japan scrap from South Korea has been not very high, so the tradable level for ex-Japan H2 scrap in South Korea has remained almost stable at JPY 52,000-53,000/mt ($458-467/mt) FOB, while a number of new deals for shredded, HS and shindachi have been reported in the market at increased prices. - Vietnamese steelmakers have faced higher offers for scrap from the US and Japan and, though bids have also started to increase gradually, trading has been inactive this week. Japanese H2 grade scrap offers to Vietnam are currently in the range of $535-550/mt CFR, while Vietnamese buyers’ target prices for this grade is at $525/mt CFR for now. Also, ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Vietnam at $550/mt CFR, while tradable prices have also increased to $535-540/mt CFR, up by $15-20/mt on average from last week. - The import scrap price increase in Pakistan during the current week has been gaining momentum, following the global trend. By the end of the week, offers for shredded 211 scrap of European origin reached $550-555/mt CFR, up $30/mt over the past week, with Pakistani customers being quite active in bookings, but at prices not higher than the low end of the range. Meanwhile, domestic producers of rebar have adjusted their prices upwards by PKR 3,000/mt (around $17-18/mt), aiming to pass on higher input costs. - Import scrap offers in Bangladesh have risen significantly during the current week. Though Bangladeshi customers have not resumed bookings yet, preferring to evaluate the current developments, some of them are expected to book material in the coming week. While offers for bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap have increased by $35/mt during the week, to $570/mt CFR, containerized HMS I/II 80:20 scrap has been offered at $535/mt CFR, up $20/mt over the past week. Shredded scrap of European origin has added $5-10/mt over the past week to $560-565/mt CFR. The shortage of containers has remained the most challenging issue in doing business. - Ex-Japan scrap prices have continued to strengthen, with the results of the Kanto monthly export tender only confirming the bullish mood among market participants concerning future developments. On balance, the tender in October was closed at over $60/mt higher compared to the previous month. While the price in the Kanto tender corresponds to JPY 54,213/mt ($480/mt) FOB, the SteelOrbis reference price this week was settled at JPY 52,000-54,000/mt ($455-473/mt) FOB, adding JPY 500/mt to the high end of the range over the past week due to the higher bids from Vietnamese customers. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-steel-scrap-market-to-reach-748-2-million-metric-tons-by-2026--301331321.html Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Steel Scrap estimated at 574.5 Million Metric Tons in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of 748.2 Million Metric Tons by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% over the analysis period. Obsolete, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is projected to grow at a 5.3% CAGR to reach 438.5 Million Metric Tons by the end of the analysis period. After a thorough analysis of the business implications of the pandemic and its induced economic crisis, growth in the Prompt segment is readjusted to a revised 3.4% CAGR for the next 7-year period. This segment currently accounts for a 26.3% share of the global Steel Scrap market. Obsolete scrap, or old scrap, represents the largest segment. Obsolete scrap consists of any redundant steel product with no usage life and is generally collected when the products made from steel reach their end of life. Prompt scrap is obtained when steel products are being manufactured. This type of scrap consists of punchings, turnings, borings and cuttings. The Steel Scrap market in the U.S. is estimated at 52.3 Million Metric Tons in the year 2021. The country currently accounts for a 8.78% share in the global market. China, the world's second largest economy, is forecast to reach an estimated market size of 301.7 Million Metric Tons in the year 2026 trailing a CAGR of 5.7% through the analysis period. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at 2.7% and 3.2% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 2.6% CAGR while Rest of European market (as defined in the study) will reach 319.3 Million Metric Tons by the end of the analysis period. Scrap will continue to grow in demand for many years to come and the move by LG to acquire a company that controls 15% of the US scrap market was a very brilliant one. In summation, the catalysts as I see them:
I'm not giving any new updates on those, as I'm still very comfortable with the PT's I last put out. Of course, the timing is the million dollar question. I still think $CLF and $MT are the two stocks that have the most meat left on the bones, but I could also see 40-50% upside on $STLD, $NUE and $X from their current prices. I believe that Q4 will be even healthier than Q3 and believe you will hear it in the guidance for all other manufacturers like you heard it in the guidance from $STLD today. I still believe we are in the early stages of the 5th Commodity SuperCycle of all time: https://preview.redd.it/w1eg75lt8bu71.png?width=1368&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e5e0bf275f33c87c39050a34f2f448a862270eb I believe we are going to get to that red dot WAYYYYYYYYYYY before 2045. Thanks for following me and valuing my opinion. I promise you all not to be a stranger and I'll be around a bit more over earnings than I have been. Hang in there! -Vito |
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