|submitted by CommodityVol to u/CommodityVol [link] [comments]|
This episode IS for the cool babies! We’ve got some visual elements in this for the kids out there, including kid-friendly food challenges, cool toys like marbles and capos, and our popup kitchen, McElsnacks!Nothing like food talk to make a MBMBAM episode fun… This will be a liveblog so my opinion may change.
Justin: I’m trying to incorporate more visual elements […] there can be visual elements for the kids, and audio elements for the adults.If we get a Wizard like what is going on in his brain.
Griffin: I will say thought that the majority of our audience still does live in the audio space, and so when we do these things they won’t get that and they’ll hate that. And they’ll either tell us they hate that and that hurts my feelings or they’ll stop listening and supporting us.
My girlfriend recently proposed to me by setting up a beach picnic (Travis interjects that it is a bold move, as it can be very risky re: wind – which I had been thinking myself), with some of my favourite foods including a butternut squash pasta dish. As she did not have access to the recipe, I usually use she improvised by using an entirely different recipe. Problem is I actively dislike this recipe. Obviously I wasn’t going to say anything to hurt her feelings or ruin the proposal, but now wants to make it regularly. How do I sidestep it without admitting I never liked the engagement pasta?Immediate talk about social media ninjas wanting the engagement pasta.
Do I admit I don’t like our engagement pasta, putting a cloud over a very thoughtful and wonderful engagement, or resign myself to eating imposter pasta for the rest of my life?Travis uses gaslighting! Tell them it doesn’t taste the same anymore (maybe it is missing love).
Justin: …put it before a panel of judges that will include Ina Garden, Bobby Flay, and (for no reason) Millie Bobby Brown.From that reasonably entertaining segment Griffin brings up wanting to set the Wizard upon us :(
Griffin: Millie Bobby Flay is the new food network we ran out of ideas. It’s Millie Vanilli Bobby Flay c’mon we have no idea left.
Justin: “Whoever trusts in his own mind is a fool” – that’s how Joe Rogan starts every episode.Personal tangent: I’ve been getting ads for this podcast called What Future and it is the absolute most insulting piece of dogshit ad I have ever heard and absolutely makes me hate the show and the host specifically. Like we give Maxfun ads rightful grief for their terribleness, but this is just so unappealing and frankly insulting straight from 2006 nerd culture shit. Listen to it here and suffer too!
Griffin: What does the bible say about not using the internet with the correct security slash anti-virus settings?Okay that got a laugh out of me – you win this round Wizard slash Griffin. Good timing and turning this into a long winded setup for the real weirdness of the article’s author’s brain.
|Match||Winner||Post Match Brawl?|
|AEW World Trios Championship: Death Triangle vs. Best Friends||Death Triangle||No|
|AEW Interim Women's Championship Eliminator: Toni Storm vs. Penelope Ford||Toni Storm||No|
|TNT Championship: Wardlow vs. Tony Nese||Wardlow||Kinda sorta|
|Grand Slam Tournament of Championships Wildcard Match: Hangman Adam Page vs. Bryan Danielson||Bryan Danielson||No|
|ROH Pure Championship: Wheeler YUTA vs. Daniel Garcia||Daniel Garcia||No|
WOMEN LEADING PRAYER : SHOULD SCRIPTURE TRUMP TRADITION?
- In March 2005, web traffic and media in the Muslim world convulsed with new controversy. Its source was unusual. Muslims in America rarely contribute to the regular flow of scandals or outrageous fatwas that provide standard media fodder. In New York, a collection of Muslim activists along with the organization MuslimWakeUp.com had helped organize what they described as the ‘first public Juma prayer of its kind’ in the history of Islam. It would be led by a woman, who would deliver the Friday sermon before leading the congregation in prayer. The Manhattan prayer received premier attention in the US media. Motives were mixed among the organizers. For many, asserting a woman’s right to lead men or a mixed-gender group in communal prayer and deliver a Friday sermon was a necessary step toward reclaiming Muslim women’s parity with men and their legitimate role in Islam’s public religious life. For the American Muslim scholar and activist who was asked to lead the prayer, Dr. Amina Wadud, it was the continuation of her own spiritual struggle to realize Islam’s liberation of all people, an outgrowth of the African-American struggle for equality. For author and media activist Asra Nomani, who buzzed around the event coordinating publicity for an upcoming book, it was a step in her ongoing public cry for reform in Islam (she had some days earlier taped ‘99 [sic] Precepts’ to the door of her local mosque in West Virginia). 56
- Reactions to the woman-led prayer came immediately, vehement and polarizing. Western Muslim supporters of MuslimWakeUp.com’s message applauded the act as courageous and overdue. Some Muslims in the US and Canada worried that, regardless of the Shariah ruling on such a prayer, the event would only sharpen divisions within the community without advancing women’s rights. Ultimately, its Shariah legitimacy would hinge on three questions: could a woman lead a mixed congregation in prayer? If so, could she lead them in one of the five daily required prayers or only in extra prayers? Finally, could a woman lead the required Friday communal prayer, a duty that included giving the Friday sermon?
- Ulama condemned the act. From prominent American Muslim scholars to the towering figures of Yusuf Qaradawi and Ali Gomaa, the response was clear: the infallible consensus of the Umma prohibited women from leading mixed groups in any of the required daily prayers. Moreover, a woman delivering the Friday sermon was inconceivable and unheard of in Islamic history. As Gomaa wrote in a representative fatwa, these prohibitions had been agreed upon by ‘the people of knowledge from the four schools of law, nay the eight schools of law,’ referring to the four Sunni schools, the two Shiite, the Zahiri and the Ibadi Kharijite schools. 57
- But even Gomaa’s fatwa tacitly acknowledged the dearth of any real scriptural evidence against woman-led prayer. This lay behind the decision by the epochal Sufi sage Ibn Arabi to actually affirm women’s categorical right to lead prayers. Ibn Arabi was no lackluster jurist and Hadith scholar, and he noted that none of the ulama who prohibited woman-led prayer had any scriptural proof (nass) to support their views. Thus, ‘they should not be listened to.’ 58
- Indeed, the Qur’an is silent on the question of woman-led prayer, and the only Hadith cited directly in classical and modern discussions, which quotes the Prophet as ordering, ‘A woman will not lead a man in prayer, nor a Bedouin a townsman, nor an iniquitous man a believer,’ has never been upheld as reliable at all. Rather, it has always been rated as ‘weak’ or even ‘feeble.’ 59
- Much of the verbiage on the prohibition of woman-led prayer in classical works of Shariah law consists of derivative arguments. Each leaves ample opening for objection. In a sophistic inversion of the a fortiori argument, Bayhaqi puts forth as his strongest evidence the tangentially related Hadith that ‘A community that entrusts its affairs to a woman will not flourish.’ One could object that not allowing a woman to serve as the ruler of a state in no way necessitates disqualifying her from the significantly lesser charge of leading the men in her family in a daily prayer at home. Another standard argument, that women lack the spiritual and intellectual faculties to lead prayer, is dispensed with summarily by Ibn Arabi. At various points in history, he explains, women have been affirmed by revelation as leaders and bearers of prophecy. Women are, as such, no different as a class than men regarding the capacity to lead religious rituals. Certainly, specific women lack the knowledge or piety required to lead a prayer. But men with those failings would also not be allowed to lead prayer. Protests against someone unqualified leading prayer should therefore be directed against specific individuals, not an entire sex. 60
- Hanafi jurists denied the possibility of woman-led mixed prayer because the Prophet had supposedly commanded Muslims to ‘move them (females) back to where God moved them’ in the order of prayer lines. But they had to admit that this was not a Hadith at all but merely a Companion’s opinion. The great Cordoban judge Ibn Rushd (best known in the West as the philosopher Averroes) repeats the a fortiori argument that, since numerous undisputed Hadiths state that women must line up behind men in prayer, a woman cannot conceivably be in front of them leading. 61
- But what if, as some Hanbali scholars suggested, a woman leading the prayers stood behind the men (admittedly, these scholars only meant this in the case of the optional night prayers in Ramadan)? Some ulama rightly objected that standing in front of the congregation was a basic requirement of leading prayer. A woman would thus have to lead from in front of the men and could not stand behind their ranks. The guidelines for how various groups in the congregation line up to pray, however, do not necessarily apply to the prayer leader. It is agreed that slaves should pray behind freemen, youths behind elders, but many jurists allowed a youth to lead elders in prayer and most schools allowed slaves to lead prayers with freemen in the congregation on the basis of a report from Aisha. 62
- Why then could a woman, who would usually line up behind the men, not stand in the unique position of imam in front of them? The main reason that men do not pray behind women in Islam is easily understood: a woman bowing and prostrating on the floor in front of men, her posterior raised in the air, could hamper concentration for both parties. A female prayer leader, however, could be shielded by a screen: the Shafi‘i and the Hanbali schools considered the prayer of a member of the congregation valid even if he was separated from the leader by a wall, barrier or street. What mattered was being able to hear the commands of the prayer. This ruling rested on sound Hadiths and lay behind the inventive argument by the traditionalist Moroccan cleric Ahmad Ghumari that villagers could follow a Friday prayer broadcast by radio provided that the imam leading the prayer was spatially somewhere between the village and Mecca. 63
- For many ulama, it was the homily that precedes the Friday prayer and the idea of a woman speaking before the crowd that proved most problematic. Qaradawi makes explicit the long-assumed wisdom behind disallowing women’s public religious leadership. Seeing a woman speak or hearing her voice, even her recitation of the Qur’an, would excite the uncheckable male appetites in the audience and result in social strife (fitna). According to this logic, whether reading the Qur’an aloud in prayer or delivering a sermon, by speaking aloud before men a woman is essentially exposing part of her nudity (‘awra) and tempting men. This claim falls flat, however. Two of the five daily prayers are led in silence. Even in the case of a woman delivering a sermon or leading a prayer aloud, there is nothing impermissible about hearing a woman’s voice. Women in the Prophet’s time spoke openly to unrelated men. The Prophet sought the counsel of women in Medina, and the Companions turned to his wives, like Aisha, for guidance on the proper understanding of their religion. Even the most conservative medieval ulama explained that the legal dictum ‘A woman’s voice is part of her nudity’ was not literal; it merely conveyed the teaching in the Maliki, Hanbali and Shafi‘i schools that it was ‘discouraged’ for women to raise their voices unnecessarily around unrelated, potentially intrigued men in public. For the Hanafi school, it would only apply to her voice in prayer. 64
- Opponents of woman-led prayer or sermons might reply that women speaking in public or reciting the Qur’an may be permissible, but it is not necessary and thus presents a needless, if slight, provocation of men’s desires. But the male Companions who learned about Islam and transmitted thousands of Hadiths from Aisha did not need to have direct contact with her either. They could have asked their sisters to act as intermediaries, for example. Necessity has never been part of this question. Gomaa himself notes that the Shariah has no problem with women reciting the Qur’an aloud in public. 65
- Aside from the questions surrounding the sermon, the specifics of leading the Friday prayer are otherwise moot. Leading it is no different than leading a regular daily prayer in the mosque. The requirement that the Friday preacher be male stems from the broader prohibition on women leading men or mixed congregations. And it is precisely this prohibition that the 2005 New York prayer contested. The appeals to consensus in the responses of Gomaa, Qaradawi and the many other ulama who spoke out against the Manhattan prayer also ring hollow. They noted, as had the prayer organizers, that the great tenth-century jurist Tabari (d. 923) had allowed women to lead prayer categorically, as had two of Shafi‘i’s leading students, Muzani (d. 878) and Abu Thawr (d. 854). We have already mentioned Ibn Arabi’s position. A cadre of Hanbali scholars had allowed women to lead men and women in the optional nightly prayers in Ramadan (Tarawih) if the women in question were learned in the Qur’an and all the available males ignorant (and also provided the woman stood out of the men’s sight, behind them). 66
- This was no mean gaggle of supporters. Tabari was so respected a jurist in Baghdad and beyond that a madhhab formed around his teachings. Although it eventually became extinct, Tabari’s madhhab flourished among Sunni ulama for two centuries after his death. Just decades after the scholar died, a leading intellectual historian of the age counted his school among the eight madhhabs recognized at the time. Abu Thawr also constituted his own madhhab, which attracted numerous adherents in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Muzani was one of the main disciples of Shafi‘i, and his abridgement of Shafi‘i’s teachings became the basis for all later books of substantive law in the Shafi‘i school. The claim of consensus made by Gomaa and others is unconvincing in light of this dissent. For consensus to be binding, the vast majority of classical Sunni legal theorists allowed no difference of opinion among the qualified scholars of an era, a position to which Gomaa himself subscribes. Making a claim of consensus when three of the most famous legal scholars of a generation disagreed is thus problematic. 67
- Gomaa and others may be referring to the common Shariah principle that an early diversity of opinion is erased and replaced when later scholars come to consensus, but even this is hardly agreed upon. Even those who insist on such late-round consensus must recognize, as the fourteenth-century luminary of Cairo, Zarkashi, reminds us, that it is not the rock-solid consensus that quashes all objection. It is only a ‘probable consensus.’ More importantly, a lengthy roster of the greatest medieval legal theorists denied that consensus wipes out the dissent of earlier scholars, for their arguments remain valid, as if the dissenting scholar himself still sat in debate. As Shafi‘i himself once said, ‘madhhabs do not die with the death of their practitioners.’ 68
- Dismissing early diversity of opinion is especially ironic today, since the restriction on marriage age in Egyptian law as well as a crucial argument for Shariah-compliant mortgages, both supported by Al-Azhar scholars for decades, rest on this principle. Both derived Shariah legitimacy chiefly by resuscitating the defunct and anomalous ancient opinions of Ibn Shubruma. Some of the ulama responses to the 2005 prayer reflected the weakness of the mainstream prohibition. While they all prohibited women leading public mixed-gender prayers and giving the Friday sermon, Qaradawi did allow a qualified woman to lead daily prayers in her own household, since all the men were family. Zaid Shakir, a respected African-American Muslim scholar and cofounder of America’s first Muslim college, also wrote that women are allowed to lead their family in prayer if no male is qualified. 69
- Scriptural evidence for and against women leading prayers was slim, but once again Hadiths have played a determinative role. The proponents of women leading prayer, including the MuslimWakeUp.com organizers, cited as proof the Hadith of the female Companion Umm Waraqa. In this Hadith, the Prophet instructs Umm Waraqa to lead her household in prayer, even assigning an old man to act as her muezzin and perform the call to prayer. Even the medieval scholars most opposed to woman-led prayer acknowledged that the word ‘household’ (dar) used in the Hadith should be assumed to include men and women. 70
- Much better attested than the previous Hadith banning woman-led prayer, the Hadith of Umm Waraqa has been deemed ‘sound’ (sahih) by respected medieval scholars such as Ibn Khuzayma and Hakim Naysaburi, and the ultra-conservative modern Salafi Hadith critic Albani rated it as ‘good’ (hasan), the status of most Hadiths used in law. 71
- In the case of Umm Waraqa’s Hadith, the incredible detail and labyrinthine channels of Hadith criticism have proven crucial, as critics of woman-led prayer argue that the correct version of this Hadith only describes Umm Waraqa leading the women of her household in prayer as opposed to a mixed congregation. All narrations of the Hadith of Umm Waraqa pass through the eighth-century scholar Walid bin ‘Abdallah bin Jumay‘. There are two widely transmitted versions, both telling how the Prophet instructed Umm Waraqa to recite the Qur’an in her home, to lead her house in prayer and assigning her a muezzin (one narration emphasized how she had memorized all of the Qur’an revealed until that time). There is also one isolated, uncorroborated transmission of the Hadith that appears only in the Sunan of the tenth-century Baghdad scholar Daraqutni. It includes the added phrase that she should lead ‘the women of her home in prayer.’ Daraqutni also includes the gender-unspecified version in his Sunan. 72
- In total, five transmitters narrated the gender-neutral version from Walid, with only one person passing onward the version specifying women only. Here the fossilization of scholarly trends within the science of Sunni Hadith criticism rears its head. The change to Umm Waraqa’s Hadith introduced by the one minority narration is a textbook example of a phenomenon that ulama termed the ‘Addition of the Trustworthy Transmitter’ (Ziyadat al- Thiqa). Among the founding generations of Sunni Hadith criticism during the ninth and tenth centuries, Hadith critics authenticated material based on the preponderance of evidence. After gathering all the narrations of a particular Hadith, the critic would select as the most reliable whichever one enjoyed the strongest evidence, both in terms of the raw number of narrations and the quality and status of the authorities who transmitted them. Daraqutni, the scholar in whose collection the minority version is preserved, stood on the cusp of a slide away from this early critical rigor. After him, fewer and fewer Sunni jurists acquired the expertise in Hadiths needed to wade into the details of authenticating reports. The Hadith study circles of Baghdad’s mosques thinned as students flocked to the stipends and lodging of the newly established madrasas. They churned out ulama trained in the intricacies of applying law but with limited interest in Hadiths. Jurists wanted to increase the number and diversity of scriptural proof texts available to support their arguments, which made the categorical acceptance of any ‘Addition of a Trustworthy Transmitter’ attractive. By the mid-eleventh century this had become the norm. As a result, as long as the transmitter providing the version of the Hadith with an addition could be argued as meeting the ‘trustworthy’ rating, the addition was accepted. It became the received, authentic version of the Hadith regardless of the greater number or superior accuracy of contradictory narrations. In the case of Umm Waraqa’s Hadith, jurists have used the rule of the ‘Addition of a Trustworthy Transmitter’ to advance the isolated, women-only version found in Daraqutni’s Sunan as the only version worthy of consideration. 73
- Examined more closely, however, Umm Waraqa’s Hadith should not fall under this rule. Daraqutni included both the majority and minority versions of the Hadith in his Sunan collection. Both versions come from Walid via his student Abu Ahmad Zubayri, a well- respected Sunni scholar and Hadith transmitter. The majority non-gender-specifying version is transmitted from Zubayri by one Ahmad bin Mansur Ramadi, while the solitary women- only version comes from Zubayri via Umar bin Shamma. These two alternative links in the chain are quite comparable to one another; both were very well-respected Sunni scholars lauded as being trustworthy narrators of Hadiths by a range of critics. Daraqutni, himself considered the last of the great early Hadith critics, rated both men as ‘trustworthy.’ 74
- So far nothing raises alarm, but at this point the two versions of the Hadith diverge in a slight but crucial way. The majority version continues on via one of Daraqutni’s most respected teachers, Abu Bakr Naysaburi, while the minority one goes through a much less well-known source used by Daraqutni, Abu Hasan Baghawi (d. 934). Daraqutni called Baghawi ‘trustworthy,’ but his praise for Naysaburi was lengthy and glowing. It befitted such a renowned scholar. Indeed, Abu Bakr Naysaburi was one of the leading Hadith scholars and Shafi‘i jurists of Iraq in his day. Daraqutni said of him, ‘I have never seen anyone with a better command of Hadiths.’ More tellingly, Daraqutni expressly appreciated Naysaburi’s mastery of ‘additional phrases and wording in the contents of Hadith.’ 75
- Baghawi, by contrast and ironically, is known to posterity in great part because of an unusual addition he made in one Hadith’s chain of transmission. In fact, it is none other than Daraqutni who noticed this oddity. Baghawi was praised for his piety and even referred to as ‘the Sufi,’ but otherwise Daraqutni’s mention of his flawed, isolated addition to an Isnad is all that historical sources noted about him. Rarely in Islamic legal discourse does a ruling hinge on a single datum. Rarely in Hadith criticism does an evalution hinge on a single comparison. The case of women leading prayer is thus doubly rare. With no Qur’anic verses, other Hadiths or compelling analogical evidence, one is left with the Hadith of Umm Waraqa in its two versions. All depends on the choice between them. On the one hand, there is the widely attested majority version of the Hadith affirmed by a master scholar renowned for his expertise in additions to the texts of Hadiths. On the other, there is the isolated, uncorroborated version vouched for by an accepted but obscure scholar known for little more than making an unusual addition to a Hadith. If we were to follow the more critically rigorous methods of the early Muslim Hadith scholars like Daraqutni, before they succumbed to the allure of maximizing evidence, the correct choice of which version of the Hadith to accept would be obvious at many points in the calculation: the majority version. Even if we follow the later, lax methodology, which accepts the ‘Addition of a Trustworthy Transmitter,’ the majority version should still emerge victorious. Although Baghawi was rated as reliable by Daraqutni, he is recorded as having a questionable record in additions to Hadiths. It would be difficult to argue that the limited accreditation he received could really qualify him as reliable when addition is the question at hand. As a result, whatever the motivations of the Manhattan prayer organizers, they had some sound precedent in the Hadith of Umm Waraqa. It is not surprising that some of the greatest Sunni scholars of Islamic civilization’s halcyon days came to the conclusion that a woman could lead mixed-gender prayers. Among the many controversies and fierce debates swirling inside the global Umma, and amid the societal tensions that entangle the unavoidable, hypostatized orbs of ‘Western reform’ and ‘Islamic tradition,’ the 2005 Manhattan prayer has been one of the loudest. The reason is not hard to guess. The motif of the European knight/gentleman rescuing the oppressed oriental maiden from her harem prison remains a well-watered one. The native ‘oriental’s’ preservation of his ‘authentic’ tradition has sprung up in response. Taking the iconic example of Hindu widow self-immolation (satti, banned by the British in India in 1829), Gayatri Spivak notes the discourse that spirals destructively between the colonialist impulse of ‘white men saving brown women from brown men’ and its inevitable epiphenomenon, the ‘brown men’s’ response that ‘the women actually wanted to die.’ 76
- At no point has the woman’s voice been heard. How can it be when whatever she says will either be ‘delusional’ (from the perspective of the white man) or ‘selling out’ (from that of the brown man)? The same dilemma applies to Muslim scholars opining on woman-led prayer. No fatwa can be neutral or claim to stand on scholarly merit alone. All is sucked into the black hole of contest over identity and power. From the British Raj to the US invasion of Afghanistan, calling for the liberation of oppressed ‘brown women’ has been a mainstay in justifying cultural or military imperialism. 77
- As such, scholars like Gomaa and Qaradawi are understandably suspicious of Western Muslims trying to enlighten them. As with satti, whether fetishized as victims to justify condemning the non-Western Other or subjected to a reinforced or imagined authentic ‘tradition,’ women’s bodies and rights are the ground on which power is contested. It is capitally naive to imagine that the Qur’an and Sunna are gender blind. No amount of charitable rereading can mold them to conform to what are touted as modern, ‘universal values.’ It is equally naive to assume that, beyond the gender roles and distinctions clearly mandated by God’s Messenger, the patriarchal societies of the pre-modern Near East and South Asia in which the Shariah was elaborated added nothing else to the mixture. Patriarchy could bend the law to its will. Abu Hanifa had concluded that women did not need a male guardian’s permission to marry, and this became the main stance on this issue in the Hanafi school. But when employing their sultanic right to pick which legal opinion to make state law, the Ottomans had opted for an obscure opinion from a solitary early Hanafi scholar who did require a woman to secure her guardian’s approval. 78
- From its dawn, Islamic law granted women full financial personhood, but the wealthy women of metropolises like Damascus and Istanbul often had to rely on male agents to carry out their transactions. The public world belonged to men. Noblewomen should only leave the home for ‘a licit necessity,’ concluded a stern but representative fourteenth-century Cairene scholar. 79
- It is a bizarre irony of history that the physical consigning of women to the private space of the home, so ubiquitous in the Shariah heritage that flourished with classical Islamic civilization, clashes so discordantly with the decidedly open and active role that the Prophet’s wives and other Arab women played in the Arabian cradle of Islam. A woman once rose up and interrupted the caliph Umar while he was addressing the congregation from the pulpit of the Prophets’ mosque. Far from silencing her, he admitted the mistake she had pointed out. 80
- Aisha’s prominence in the life of the Prophet and the early Muslim community, ranging from a senior bearer of the religion’s teachings to the head of a faction in Islam’s first civil war (whatever her regrets), cannot be denied. During the vulnerable early days of Muhammad’s community, Umm Fadl, the wife of his uncle, killed one of the leading enemies of Islam in their home by crushing his skull with a tent pole after he beat a Muslim slave. When the Prophet was surrounded by enemy warriors at the Battle of Uhud, and the bulk of the Muslims had abandoned hope, a woman who had been tending the wounded, Nusayba bint Ka‘b, fought beside him to guard her Prophet from sword blows and arrows. Later, she accompanied the Muslim campaign into central Arabia to avenge her fallen son, returning to Medina with twelve wounds. At the Battle of Yarmouk against the Byzantines, another Muslim woman, Asma’ bint Yazid, killed nine enemy soldiers with her tent pole. 81
- Umm Waraqa, in fact, had originally approached the Prophet because she wanted to die as a martyr in battle herself. But instead the Prophet instructed her to remain at home and lead her household, men and women, in prayer. Women have always been present among the ranks of the ulama, but their role has almost always been invisible. Of the inestimable library of books produced by scholars of the Shariah before the twentieth century, no more than a handful issue from the hands of women. As one fourteenth-century (male) jurist observed with more pride than disapproval, it was surely the Shariah’s emphasis on female modesty and protecting women’s honor that prevented them from a greater role in scholarship, though he notes that many of the greatest scholars would issue fatwas with their learned wives’ or daughters’ signatures attached in approval. 82
- Women won respect as Sufi ascetics, and continue to be sought out as transmitters of Hadiths and the Qur’an to this day. But the urge to keep them from the pulpit has only grown stronger as Muslim communities and Islam’s global religious universe feel ever more encroached upon by outsiders. Muslims seek instinctively to guard a sense of authentic tradition by staking out the ground of women’s bodies and voices. Clearly, woman-led, mixed-congregation prayers are not established practice in the Islamic tradition. But they are not unprecedented or as controversial as many think. The Hadith of Umm Waraqa proves that the Prophet commanded at least one woman to lead a mixed congregation in prayer. A woman-led Friday prayer, with the sermon delivered by a woman, is clearly a novelty. But none of the ulama’s objections to it rest on any firm, direct scriptural evidence, and solutions exist to the concerns they raise. Muslims today thus find themselves faced with a question: in the absence of opposing evidence from scripture, does simply adhering to how things have always been done justify denying half of the population the right to public religious leadership? It is revealingly plain that if this issue did not involve the knot of gender and power, the evidence for permitting it would carry the day without controversy.
- That fact casts light on a dark and unworthy place in the male conscience. A humbling reminder of this is found in the life of Ibn Taymiyya, a learned and conservative Hanbali don but also an iconoclast unintimidated by mainstream censure. He used to admit how impressed he was by one Fatima bint Abbas (d. 1315), a female Hanbali scholar who had mastered the greatest works of law and took to the pulpits of Damascus mosques to harangue and inspire a sinful public with her preaching. Despite his respect for her, Ibn Taymiyya recalled that he had marked reservations about her speaking in the mosque pulpit. He intended to put a stop to it. Then the Prophet came to him in a dream. ‘This is a righteous woman,’ the Messenger of God counseled him. The inimitable scholar, who had stood unperturbed before sultans and had smashed idols, held his tongue. 83
|Match||Winner||Post Match Brawl?|
|Dax Vs. Jay Lethal||Jay Lethal||No|
|Billy Gunn Vs. Colten Gunn||Colten Gunn||Yes|
|Britt Baker Vs. Kilynn King||Britt Baker||Yes|
|AEW Undisputed Championship: CM Punk Vs. Moxley||Moxley||No|
|Trios Tournament Match: Death Triangle Vs. Will Ospreay / Aussie Open||Ospreay||No|
The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;)submitted by DesmondMilesDant to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section".
“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here.
So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so )
Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time.
As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market.
Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart.
Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand )
We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes.
It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless.
Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD )
We have a long way to go friends.
Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in.
Respected Traders and Investors,
How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health.
Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us.
P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol )
Recap : Predictions 2022 so far.
I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.
And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning.
What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon.
Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ?
No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now.
About my self.
Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming.
Now will I be wrong in the future?
Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice.
Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys.
Why take my advice ?
So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD
Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.
I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes :
-> Candle sticks
-> Elliot wave with Fibonacci
-> Stochastic Rsi
-> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O)
-> At last my “Ketlner channels”
Step 1 : Forex Markets
Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals.
Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy)
Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis.
Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake.
Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how.
Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse.
Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.
Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.
You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains.
We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that.
So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength )
We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote.
“Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z.
I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ?
Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd
Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level.
Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.”
So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.
Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )
This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right?
If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe.
So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ?
Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets.
Eur-usd implied Fed funds.
Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :
Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t.
( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )
Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds
Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries.
Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one.
Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.
Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.
IEI/HYG : Double check below thing.
IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off )
IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on )
Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.
Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.
Velocity of M2
This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it?
Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147
"The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website.
So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “
Result : “F off”
Step 7 : Gold
We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts.
Old man's Gold :
Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes.
Digital Gold :
As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now.
Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.
Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG
Can you guys do this please?
Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK
Step 9 : US Oil.
Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days.
So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.
This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes.
“Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates"
You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like.
Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil.
Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.
Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )
Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on.
J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m
Weekly time frame analysis :
Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test.
Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes.
As for individual bonds and overall yield curve :
Yield curve :
Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder
Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha.
Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.
Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.
I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position.
So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+.
Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.
Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis.
So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon.
Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary.
Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market )
Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :
But what about bonds?
Final Result :
Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy.
P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read.
Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down?
*** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too.
Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations.
Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time.
( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time )
Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy.
With lots of love
|submitted by angriafricanus to Kenya [link] [comments]|
A short intro to this post seriessubmitted by galeej to IndiaSpeaks [link] [comments]
We're starting this post series that will focus on economics, policy, current affairs and politics to a certain extent from a data backed lens. The idea is to critically analyze, using relevant data, topics that citizens should ideally know and understand. The topics covered will be wide and varied.
The politics behind petrol
The price of petrol and diesel – Why is it so high?
The price of petrol and the price of diesel has been going steady like the VVS Laxman and Rahul Dravid partnership in the fabled Eden Garden test match; and just like that partnership, there does not seem to be any let up. Prices of fuel in India seem like an anomaly when compared to the prices in our neighbourhood. Its often makes for an interesting comparison article where people compare the prices of petrol across our neighbours and show how “costly” it is here.
While the price of petrol is always known to be high due to duties, it is very important to analyze why and what impact these duties have on the economy.
First, lets start off by analyzing and breaking down the price of petrol and where it goes. The table below shows the breakdown of taxes and duties for 1 litre of petrol in Delhi (oct 2021):
Split of petrol and diesel prices and its cess
As you can see, around 31% of the price of petrol goes to the central government while around 23% goes to the state government. This effectively means that around 54% - 60% of the cost of fuel goes to the government. So remember, the next time you fill a litre of petrol, you’re effectively giving 60% of the fuel price to the government as a tax.
An interesting aside to note here is that Fuel and Alcohol (consequently two cash cows for many a government) is interestingly out of the purview… likely because the GST rate stops at 28%... but that is an article for another day.
The history of pricing of petrol and diesel
Historically, India did not have a free market pricing for petrol and diesel. Petrol and diesel would be imported by the government and the government would set the price that would be payable by the citizens for using it. The advantage of this method of pricing lies in the fact that the government can choose to keep prices somewhat stable and protect the citizens from random shocks in prices that affected petrol prices during OPEC shutdowns (refer to the US petrol crisis in the mid 1960s). However, the disadvantage is that when prices continuously increase, the government will go into debt if they do not commensurately increase the price of petrol/diesel.
Backdrop in 2004 and economic impact of oil
The 2004 year ended with spiralling petrol prices due to supply related crunches. The price of crude, which was around $36 a barrel, skyrocketed to $57 a barrel. The price of oil kept increasing due to supply side constraints.
The problem with increasing oil for India meant a couple of things:
The government of India therefore decided to issue the infamous “Oil Bonds” in order to plug the gap between the total collections from citizens the additional gap. The issue? This is debt. And debt has to be repaid in the future.
The government effectively pushed the problem to the future generations for their current consumption. This was effectively mentioned by Dr. Manmohan Singh, the then PM in the quote:
“However, I would like the nation to remember that issuing bonds and loading deficits on oil companies is not a permanent solution to this problem. We are only passing on our burden to our children who will have to repay this debt” – Dr. Manmohan Singh 4th Jan 2008What initially started off as a Rs. 9000 cr oil bond in 2005 swelled into a Rs. 1.4 lac crore problem for the government in 2014.
The total interest payments alone come to close to 1.3 lac crores since the year 2011 (see table below). The table below shows the amount of principal and interest payments that have been paid since 2011 and the expected settlement patterns of the loans.
Settlement patterns for oil bonds (E is marked by Expected settlement pattern)
*Table showing current and expected settlement of oil bonds
**Source – Union budget of India (receipts)
The last of the oil bonds will be settled in 2026.
Inputs != outputs
The idea of the oil bonds was simple. The government of India raises bonds for capital today (which was used to purchase oil and subsidize it for the citizens) in lieu of a payment of interest over the course of the tenure of the bond and eventual repayment of capital (not very dissimilar to a loan taken for paying your house).
Curiouser and curiouser still is the receipts from duties. One would expect the duties to add up to the interest + principal component of the loan. Think of duties here as the EMI that you pay to your house (it’s not an accurate comparison, but it’s late in the night and this is the best I could come up with). You take a 10 lac loan to buy a house at a 7% interest rate from a bank; you would ideally expect to pay only the principal + interest in the EMIs.
However, it’s very interesting to note that the duties and surcharges are in fact much, much higher than the actual bond itself. In fact, the duties and surcharges in the 2022-23 budget (which is receipts collected in 2020-21) is in fact greater than the actual principal + interest that is due.
Breakdown of tax revenue in a budget and the corresponding cess in petrol and diesel collected
Split of revenue and share of petrol and diesel cess
**Source – Union budget of India (receipts)
Graph of share of cess/duties in petrol and diesel to overall tax revenue
Graph showing the share of petrol and diesel cess to the overall tax revenue
One can easily infer from the table and graph on the events that have transpired:
The share of collections on petrol and diesel duties has been steadily increasing from 2014. One can clearly see a huge increase from the 2016-17 numbers and the 2017-18 numbers where the share of duties as a % of tax revenue has doubled. The share has reached a mammoth 13.43% of all tax revenues collected.
The cess that was initially supposed to cover only the interest and principal payments of the bonds that were floated has now morphed into a source of revenue for the government. What is very interesting to note is that the total cess collected as per the 2022-23 budget (which show the numbers collected in 2020-21) show that the absolute value of the cess (rs. 1.92 lac crores) is greater than the total principal + interest amount that is actually due (which is a little short of 1.37 lac crores). This is somewhat like your bank collecting the entire loan amount and then some in a single year.
What can be inferred from this
A couple of things really:
Source for data: Multiple union budget documents taken from the website (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/)
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