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CADUSD Forex Options In Review CADUSD Prem Quote Euro Style 2pmfix Options between 2022-09-23 and 2022-09-30 Model:Black Calendar:Business #CME #CAU #forex #CAD #USD #options Please visit

CADUSD Forex Options In Review CADUSD Prem Quote Euro Style 2pmfix Options between 2022-09-23 and 2022-09-30 Model:Black Calendar:Business #CME #CAU #forex #CAD #USD #options Please visit submitted by CommodityVol to u/CommodityVol [link] [comments]

Recap: MBMBAM 636: Millie Vanilli Bobby Flay - actually kind funny?

Welcome to the official mod-sanctioned recap of ep 636: Millie Vanilli Bobby Flay, I’m your two time recapper Stabitha von Murderfist. This’ll be my second recap of MBMBAM, and the second episode of MBMBAM I’ve listened to in… a while. I don't remember when I stopped listening and as I unsubbed I have no way to check. Possibly early or mid way through grad? Doesn't matter.
I was also tempted to, due to my lottery winning entry, to just put an extremely long MBMBAM Aristocrats joke, but that would require me to write an extremely long MBMBAM Aristocrats joke and I’m not doing that.
In my previous recap I took a controversial stance of Griffin being the villain of the show (due to cutting bits off and the wizard), with Travis leading the jokes and such. Let’s see if that was an outlier or a trend (or if I was just lucky).
The summary is immediately dire, so I am not filled with hope:
This episode IS for the cool babies! We’ve got some visual elements in this for the kids out there, including kid-friendly food challenges, cool toys like marbles and capos, and our popup kitchen, McElsnacks!
Nothing like food talk to make a MBMBAM episode fun… This will be a liveblog so my opinion may change.
Intro still says the episode is not for kids – would have been funny if they badly dubbed over that it is for kids, but I'm not the professional comedy podcaster here.
ONE TWO three four
TBH the main issue with the intro is it is a bit too long – should fade out so the intro blurbs overlap with the song more.
Start talking about posting videos on the TikTok and Youtube – Justin was unaware that the Richard Stink video was on Youtube. Comes up because Justin is wearing… goggles..? They also said binoculars and refer to him having / attaching marbles so idk. It is all rather unclear but they are at least having fun so it is pleasant noise rather than dull noise, you know?
Justin is talking about adding visual elements since they are putting up videos – I thought he might have just been wearing new glasses but the other two make it seem like he is doing something wacky. It leads to this exchange:
Justin: I’m trying to incorporate more visual elements […] there can be visual elements for the kids, and audio elements for the adults.
Griffin: I will say thought that the majority of our audience still does live in the audio space, and so when we do these things they won’t get that and they’ll hate that. And they’ll either tell us they hate that and that hurts my feelings or they’ll stop listening and supporting us.
If we get a Wizard like what is going on in his brain.
Travis suggests a video-only mascot that is not talked about in the audio that appears in the corner. With my listening to this after the latest Defunctland joint about the Disney channel music this is an unintentionally prescient parallel to something good.
I am also reminded of other podcasts who will take the time to describe a visual element and then say where people can find photos of said visual element.
Travis says visual things bad because he keeps getting distracted by what Justin is doing. Hashtag relatable. Also weird doing this since, as discussed elsewhere, they only upload the full audio and not the full video to Youtube. The uploads are done by an employee as well, so fingers crossed they take some of this and alchemy like allow us to see what the hell is being talked about.
Apparently, Travis lets his kid watch Youtube Family™ videos which is probably the worst thing I have heard from him, in relation to her seeing families sleep in a bouncy castle and wanting to do that. However! Justin also starts talking about parenting stuff and it’s not, like, funny, but it is actually flowing naturally, they sound engaged and natural. Griffin does not join in however, saying it got too real. Someone psychoanalyse this please.
They cut it off and Justin reads the first question at 6:40.
My girlfriend recently proposed to me by setting up a beach picnic (Travis interjects that it is a bold move, as it can be very risky re: wind – which I had been thinking myself), with some of my favourite foods including a butternut squash pasta dish. As she did not have access to the recipe, I usually use she improvised by using an entirely different recipe. Problem is I actively dislike this recipe. Obviously I wasn’t going to say anything to hurt her feelings or ruin the proposal, but now wants to make it regularly. How do I sidestep it without admitting I never liked the engagement pasta?
Immediate talk about social media ninjas wanting the engagement pasta.
Do I admit I don’t like our engagement pasta, putting a cloud over a very thoughtful and wonderful engagement, or resign myself to eating imposter pasta for the rest of my life?
Travis uses gaslighting! Tell them it doesn’t taste the same anymore (maybe it is missing love).
It is not very effective as Griffin points out that would immediately end your relationship, causing Travis to pivot to wanting to only bring it out on special occasions.
Moving away from the question Griffin questions why beach pasta isn’t a thing – and no it is not pasta salad, but hot pasta so don't @ them on Mastadon.
Using his years of experience of marriage, Justin points out they don’t need to worry as it will come out – after all the fiancé will ask if they love it and will notice their hesitation and thus it will come out.
You could also just ask a pretty popular podcast that there is a reasonable chance your fiancé also listens to about this very identifiable and specific situation. But that’s just my thoughts.
They finally point out my immediate thought: question asker makes it so they can get it to their taste. I also don’t know why the OG pasta recipe was unavailable to the girlfriend – if the question asker loves it so much she could have asked for the recipe saying she wanted to learn how to make it, right?
Like if I’m cooking something for my girlfriend I ask her how she would like it and, you know, would learn how to do that if needed. And unless the question asker keeps the recipe secret for some insane reason if you’re ready to get married surely you’re ready to share a recipe for something that the girlfriend has presumably eaten, right?
They challenge the listener to send them both recipes so they can do a blind taste test to find out which partner loves the other more and it’s pretty funny.
Justin: …put it before a panel of judges that will include Ina Garden, Bobby Flay, and (for no reason) Millie Bobby Brown.
Griffin: Millie Bobby Flay is the new food network we ran out of ideas. It’s Millie Vanilli Bobby Flay c’mon we have no idea left.
From that reasonably entertaining segment Griffin brings up wanting to set the Wizard upon us :(
The Wizard is “How to become a Fool”, filed under the “fun activities” section of Wikihow
Travis rightfully points out how uselessly broad that category is. The brothers look at the category and see titles ranging from How To Pop A Balloon, How To Have Computer Fun, to How To Perform Grindcore Vocals.
Griffin immediately realises these are all infinitely more interesting than his choice. But then goes back to his prepared topic. *sigh* you were so close to interesting content there Griff.
Point one of being a fool is to make assumptions.
Thankfully Travis brings up the saying of assuming makes an ass out of u & me makes no sense as how does you assuming make me an ass. Riffing on BBC Sherlock drunk phone charger such for a bit.
Point two is don’t read your insurance policy.
Point 3 is don’t have a legal eye look over your contracts.
They point out that 2 & 3 fall under making assumptions. They deduce (or perhaps assume..?) that the article is written by someone trapped by Wikihow due to not reading their contract and having bad insurance (seems legit).
Step 4 – overextend yourself financially: governments that have national credit acts and have passed strict laws surrounding the borrowing and lending of money are to be commended.
Jusin says the most amazing WOW (20:28), or maybe it’s that this has all been pleasantly benign that it seems outrageous.
Step 5: Stand surety for someone else’s debt (Griffin doesn’t know what this means). The Wikihow then talks about how the bible says do not do this.
Justin: Do you think the author turned it in and Wikihow said you can’t call it the libertarian agenda, and then he was ‘well, what about this’.
Discussing it Travis seems more educated on the bible than Griffin as he is aware of things that are in the bible, where Griffin also does not know that the bible contains information about contracts and finance. On this trend Justin googles the bible + fool and starts reading bible quotes re: fools, suggesting putting the clips up on tiktok sans context.
Okay, they’re starting to warm up here and getting a bit more joke heavy than pleasantry, tho I am consistently surprised at how uneducated they come off on the contents of the bible. They're also turning me around on the chosen article, so I will retract my earlier disdain.
Justin: “Whoever trusts in his own mind is a fool” – that’s how Joe Rogan starts every episode.
Personal tangent: I’ve been getting ads for this podcast called What Future and it is the absolute most insulting piece of dogshit ad I have ever heard and absolutely makes me hate the show and the host specifically. Like we give Maxfun ads rightful grief for their terribleness, but this is just so unappealing and frankly insulting straight from 2006 nerd culture shit. Listen to it here and suffer too!
Anyways, Justin is continuing to read the bible, and is astounded by the outrageousness of some of it. It’s kinda nothing, but a few jokes here and there. Travis continues to come off the most versed in the bible.
Griffin: What does the bible say about not using the internet with the correct security slash anti-virus settings?
Okay that got a laugh out of me – you win this round Wizard slash Griffin. Good timing and turning this into a long winded setup for the real weirdness of the article’s author’s brain.
Other advice includes don’t try to change a man/woman, and don’t have an affair unless it’s an agreed upon facet of an open relationship. They posit that disclaimer was added in post, especially given it goes on to say don’t slander, don’t make false promises and then don’t forget to read contra-indications on natural health products or medications.
I do have to give the Wizard this one that this was a weird ass article that has given them material and they all riffed on it, there were no interruptions of bits and omg okay the last one has me in stitches I won’t spoil it because god that was out of left field lmao
This was a really good example of what the Wizard could be – pure text, lots of different sections with opportunities for jokes and riffs (which they followed through on), kinda batshit to start with. It does highlight how disappointing every other Wizard is though! I continue to hope Griffin branches out from visual Wikihow to more niche advice/articles like this, but I am not expecting it.
I think an issue with a lot of the “weird” Wikihow articles is that they are simply over earnest, and thus seem kinda cringe to disaffected and aloof millennials, but like aside from going haha person like Sonic there is not actually any comedy there. This article, however, is actually strange in that it swings from vague to hyperspecific and is weirdly tinged with some very specific author opinions.
Of course, these articles are actually the minority of articles so the Wizard will struggle so long as Griffin constrains it to one source. Quora, the Neopets forums, and so many others are out there. Or, as others have said, just take the article title and answer it. Or grab a few of them and mash them up – how to make grindcore balloons idk I’m not getting paid for this but it can be done!
Anyways, the Wizard is put away and Travis reveals he went to a Dave Matthews concert the previous night, showing his brothers something… which is him putting on sunglasses and becoming Dave Matthews, presaging a Travis Dave Matthews bit.
Look, I will admit to being a Travis bit enjoyer, and this is good with Travis staying in character while the other two dunk on him from his inconsistent voice to not having the sunglasses ready and having to go off camera, while he discusses advancing the Dave Matthews’ brand.
Dave Matthews explains he does not sound anything like expected due to his performance last night. The bit is getting the remaining two brothers to guess which celebrity’s product line Dave Matthews is describing – market research, not a game.
The first is a line of baby strollers, which Griffin guesses correctly. There was only one though as he (Dave Matthews) then starts rambling about how he is wanting to make a movie? It is so incoherent I love it. Justin is asking about movies Dave Matthews has actually been in. But no, it is none of them, and I am laughing too much to describe the next bit because it is just so bizarre and I’m in tears
David Cronenberg weird sex oscar is mentioned.
Dave Matthews jokes himself into a corner and they roast him for overreaching, and he rolls with it as they go to the money zone.
God I wish Travis brought this insane energy to all his DMing.
This crazy energy reminds me of my favourite Frasier episodes – the restaurant one, the party one, the writing a book one etc. My Frasier hot take is that Niles / Daphne is garbage and where the show started sucking. Niles / Roz tho… opposites attract! They challenge each other’s shit! Not creepy stalker!
Stichfix ad mentions a sweater looks like Chris Evans’s one from Knives Out. Going to see Glass Onion tomorrow with my girlfriend so looking forward to that :)
Dr Gameshow ad. Look, compared to true crime ads and the aforementioned worst ad in the world, it’s not terrible. Also compared to how many ads iHeart jams in MaxFun is very low-ad, and don’t have a pre-roll either.
Munch Squad begins. Given the first half of the show has been pretty good, Justin’s on thin ice here. Wendy’s have some new sandwich. I’m from Australia where Wendy’s is an icecream place so there’s always a bit of what with this stuff.
Italians have their own separate heaven from everyone else. As it should be.
Justin loves this release so much that he vows to make it a MaxFunDrive stretch goal to get it tattooed on his body. Remember this, fellow fourths, it will come in useful later.
There has been a bit of good joking about this one, but it is still discussing a chicken burger, and we were ominously warned there would be two offerings this squad.
Griffin is going to get Dave Thomas saying give me sloppy tattooed on him as a MaxFunDrive goal.
Chicken sandwich wars return… Mr_Incredible_I_Can't_Not_Again_ I'm_Not_Strong_Enough.jpeg
Oh thank god it was only a brief mention that they put ingredients on twitter. Travis wonders if the current Twitter situation will affect Much Squad reporting re: fake accounts.
Candlenights will be online and, as Travis says, they are going to cyber. Looks like my Aristocrats joke wasn’t far off after all!
As an aside out of morbid curiosity I once looked at the MBMBAM tag on AO3 and yeah, it was a whole lot of psychic damage because jesus what would possess you to write that??? The slash between the brothers was like okay freak (I've been on the internet since the mid 90s so I have seen it all and am numb inside), but the one where someone wrote about a brother and their wife was just… hmmm this is super uncomfortable. I think if you did any of that you should not be allowed near a keyboard unsupervised ever again.
While Griffin is summing up Justin is making his haunted doll do fortnight dances and creeping him out. They also mention that they are donating to an indigenous charity for store sales – brothers lurk on TazCJ / watched the SarahZ vid confirmed.
Justin has to do the outro, and they try and look up either a comforting (but not Jesus-y) bible verse, or an ultraviolent if you lie cut your own head off and throw it in a volcano one. Eat your own feet.
So it was pretty good! Not a classic, but there were some really funny bits, there was zero interrupting, they riffed and joked and played off of each other really well. If I had not heard the show before and someone got me to listen to this I would consider listening again! Hell, I might consider listening again!
Oh, I completely forgot the pop-up restaurant bit was like two sentences in there somewhere at the start. Literally can’t remember the context, something to do with “if crypto can have a restaurant why not us” but don’t remember how they got there.
Also realised when proof-reading that there was only one question. But I didn't notice as the bits didn't drag so I wasn't thinking "this should be a question" you know? At worst they were at least all engaged and talking together rather than at each other.
The end.
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Post AEW Dynamite 9/7/22 Discussion

It's Wednesday night. You know what that means.

Tonight's Results

Match Winner Post Match Brawl?
AEW World Trios Championship: Death Triangle vs. Best Friends Death Triangle No
AEW Interim Women's Championship Eliminator: Toni Storm vs. Penelope Ford Toni Storm No
TNT Championship: Wardlow vs. Tony Nese Wardlow Kinda sorta
Grand Slam Tournament of Championships Wildcard Match: Hangman Adam Page vs. Bryan Danielson Bryan Danielson No
ROH Pure Championship: Wheeler YUTA vs. Daniel Garcia Daniel Garcia No

Announced Matches & Upcoming Shows

Grand Slam

Tonight on Dynamite

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Yaqeen Institute’s researcher Jonathan A.C. Brown wrote a chapter favouring the idea of «Women Leading Men in Prayer» in his book “Misquoting Muhammad”. He quoted even classical scholars! I was surprised while reading this, so I thought I should share the chapter with you guys

Here's the full chapter from his book “Misquoting Muhammad”:


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Post AEW Dynamite 8/24/22 Discussion

It's Wednesday night. You know what that means.

Tonight's Results

Match Winner Post Match Brawl?
Dax Vs. Jay Lethal Jay Lethal No
Billy Gunn Vs. Colten Gunn Colten Gunn Yes
Britt Baker Vs. Kilynn King Britt Baker Yes
AEW Undisputed Championship: CM Punk Vs. Moxley Moxley No
Trios Tournament Match: Death Triangle Vs. Will Ospreay / Aussie Open Ospreay No

Announced Matches & Upcoming Shows

All Out (9/4)

Tonight on Dynamite

  • Jericho is here to do us the talking. He says [Town] is loud. Last week, he says, there was an issue between he and Daniel Garcia. He brings Garcia out. He gets more You're A Wrestler chants. Last week, he says, you had a classic with Bryan Danielson. But emotions ran high after. You put your hands on me. We can work this out. Just apologize! Garcia says Jericho knew how special the moment was for me. It was the match I always dreamt of. So he stuck his hand out for me to shake, big deal, and you ruined it. Jericho says there will be more moments like that. You're the best technical sports entertainer there is, he says. He wants him to say it. Before anything can happen, Bryan Danielson comes out to be the other devil on his shoulder. Bryan says his mentor is trying to bully him. You can be whatever you want, he says. He respects their wrestling last week. He says he agrees with the crowd. He's a wrestler. Garcia says he's not doing this shit. He pushes Jericho down and leaves the ring. Bryan says he's not the biggest fan of sports entertainment, but that was entertaining. Jericho says it pisses him off that people say Bryan is the best. Jericho says actually I'M the greatest of all time. He say's he knows more about wrestling than Bryan ever will. Let me axe you a question, he says, who is a better wrestler, me and you. What would Stu Hart say. Who would Owen Hart say. If we wrestled a match here, you and me, who would win? American Dragon Vs. Lionheart? You got it, 9/4 at All Out he says to massive boos. Bryan gets hit by Hager and they mock him as the segment ends.
  • Sanjay Dutt interrupts the celebration of JAY LETHAL winning to say that yeah, it's gonna be a trios at All Out with Jay Lethal and two friends, the Motor City Machine Guns from Impact!
  • Tony is with Thunder Rosa. She says she's heartbroken. She's injured and will step down from being champion. There will be a new interim women's world champion. She says this will not stop her. She will come back stronger.
  • Stokely gives the Butt Boys his card like he has others after they beat the balls off their dad. They proceed to beat him up until Swerve / Lee show up to restore order.
  • Tony is with Death Triangle and Aussie Open. Will says the last time he was with Pac it was a 30m time limit draw. He says United Empire needs more gold. Pac says they've been waiting too long for this chance. Tonight they will not kill Will and his friends, they will murder them. They will find out the hard way.
  • Britt gets a mic after her surprise win over unsigned talent Kilynn King. She says it's a shame about Thunder Rosa. But when she was champion she wrestled with a broken wrist the whole time. Yikes lol. Toni is still gonna wrestle her though, and finally maybe someone will give a damn because she's in the ring with Britt. Toni and Jamie Hayter start fighting. Shida appears to chase off Hayter and Baker.
  • Tony is backstage with the acclaimed and SIOG, they say they love the Acclaimed, and it was fun to save them. But they think they would be fun opponents for the tag team titles at All Out. The Acclaimed say they're the uncrowned champs and they deserve it.
  • Tony is with Christian Cage. He's in a brace because of Jungle Boys antics. Jungle Boy has challenged him to a match at All Out. Cage says he was trying to give Jungle Boy a chance to apologize for everything. It was tough love, he says! But Jungle Boy isn't smart enough to see this. He says he'll never be as smart as Christian. He's seen and done it all. Jungle Boy will soon find out Christian is not average like the people of [Town]. Jungle Boy will never be in Christians' league.
  • Ricky Starks has emerged onto our viewing globes, and we're all better for it. Let's get down to business, he says. He's been in a bad mood cause he's hurt and pissed off. Team Taz is over, FTW title is gone, QT exists, and Hobbs turned his back on him. He says it's show business not friends business. He thought he had a partner in Hobbs. He called Starks every single week to make sure he was okay. He says people wanna see you do good, but not better. Don't forget Hobbs, he says, when you were Britt Bakers' security guard I gave you a seat at my table, I made sure the spotlight was big enough for both of us. When you turned your back on a nightmare I knew it would happen to me. But you hit me in my neck, man, he says. I called you my friend, but now I call you a lowdown dirty slimeball scheming snake. And where I'm from we cut the heads off of snakes. If you want to quote New Jack City so much, bring your five dollar ass to Chicago and fight me at All Out.
  • Mox says BEST IN THE WORLD MY ASS, the people who are surprised are the same ones who wrote me off when he came back. Those people don't matter, never did. The truth is I am the answer to every wrestling problem you have. He is professional wrestling. He is THE GUY in this industry. No limits, and he doesn't follow any rules. When is my time coming, so many guys ask, well I'll tell you right now, you're living in my time. Right now.
  • Kenny and the Bucks come out after Ospreay and his team wins. They have a staredown and the show goes off the air.
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Wall Street Newsletter 11 ( Final Chapter Season Finale ) : "The beginning of the End" or the "End of the Beginning" ?

Wall Street Newsletter 11 ( Final Chapter Season Finale ) :
The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;)

Disclaimer :
Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section".


“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions” 
Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here.
So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so )
Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time.

As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market.
Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart.

Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand )
We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes.
It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless.
Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD )

We have a long way to go friends.

Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in.
Respected Traders and Investors,

How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health.
Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us.
P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol )

Recap : Predictions 2022 so far.
I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.

  • We predicted the March 16 post Fomc rally.
  • We predicted the April top. Thought it was gonna last two to three days more but it lasted just one.
  • Then we predicted June Fomc bottom which we already mentioned in our first letter. Does “Dante cash deployment $SPX $3600-3700 at trend based 1 fib” ring a bell. ( But then later i said to just sell above 2% because Cpi 8.8% est and Atlanta Fed Gdp -2.1% est scared the sh9t out of me and i changed my strategy from "Riding to the top of the Bear market rally" to "Shorting at the top of bear market rally" )
  • And now we finally did the same for August top at 15/16 i.e. 200dMA/ 50-61.8% fib retrace which is just a follow up to above June Fomc bottom. post.

And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning.
What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon.

Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ?
No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now.

About my self.
Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming.

Now will I be wrong in the future?
Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice.
Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys.

Why take my advice ?
So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD
Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.

Experiment :
Deriving conclusions about Nasdaq, S&P500 and rest other asset classes using other asset classes on weekly and monthly charts. I know it sounds insane right now but you will see. So just trust me on this. (My grammar is so poor)

Tools :
I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes :
-> Candle sticks
-> Elliot wave with Fibonacci
-> Stochastic Rsi
-> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O)
-> At last my “Ketlner channels”

Procedure :

Step 1 : Forex Markets


Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
  • Eur-usd bull traders have to stop this deadly weekly close otherwise the whole world is f’ed.
  • Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.924.
  • Stochastic RSI are about to cross weekly and go down.
  • Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over.’
  • We aren’t even testing the Ketlner red upper band. That’s how bearish we are.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
  • Eur-usd bull traders couldn't stop monthly support i.e 1.03. Rejected it, retested it from below and rejected it again. The double top at 1.24 was deadly too coz you know when we break the support at 1.03 you go down equally much. Hence those red vertical lines.
  • Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.81487 so is 0.834 vertical red line support.
  • Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of there any time soon before weekly readjusts.
  • Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat for a while.
  • We are hanging on the Ketlner upper red band.

Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy)


Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
  • Gbp-usd is in a huge IHS pattern but that doesn’t mean it will go to the upside that easily. Currently the price is testing right shoulder at 1.19. If it breaks then the price will test the head 1.14 and if it doesn’t break and holds then the price will go to 1.42 to test the neckline. After that we shall see whether the IHS breaks or not. Also the volume is supporting the down move.
  • There is no Elliot wave here. But the key thing to note is that if 1.14 breaks then you’re heading to 0.87 levels. Reason being two vertical red lines should be equal.
  • Stochastic RSI has crossed weekly and is about to go down.
  • Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over. If it doesn’t break only then you have a chance of at-least going to the neckline.
  • The price action has occupied the whole Ketlner red band. Meaning we are in a bearish downtrend.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
  • Just remember we are in the box lock of 1.14 to 1.42 range. The increasing volume is also supporting this downwards move. If i don't take any wicks into consideration then it looks like the price has broken 61.8% fib and would likely head downwards to 1 fib cause there is no support of candle closing. So watch out for monthly close here as well and an eye on higher high volume. Also don't forget those red vertical lines. 1.72 - 1.42 , 1.42 - 1.14, so 1.14 - XXX. Do the math.
  • 12345 was completed in Oct 2007 ( Yah that old ) From then we are in the ABC corrective wave. Elliot wave C is still deciding what’s gonna happen with IHS. If it breaks down you’re looking at 0.95.
  • Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of here any time soon.
  • Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat.
  • We are hanging on the Ketlner red upper band.

Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake.


Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
  • Traders watch the 136. It’s a critical resistance. A clean break of it would mean 148 otherwise we go 125.
  • Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 and now we go for the ABC corrective wave. A will hit you at 116 and the rest is just a made up wave.
  • Stochastic RSI is on bottom and will go up.
  • Pvt(O) too looks like it could go up.
  • Here in this Ketlner channel we are hanging on a lower green band. That’s how bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
  • Traders watch the monthly close. If it closes above 136 we go to 148 otherwise down.
  • Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 wave. Entire ABC is made up because it all depends on the monthly close.
  • Stochastic RSI is on top flying and looks overbought but who can argue with their unlimited bond buying which in turn has caused the parabolic move.
  • Pvt(O) too looks like it could touch the blue line. If it crosses we fall, if not we go up.
  • Here in this Ketlner channel we are on an upper green band. That’s how extremely bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse.

Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.

Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.

You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains.
We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that.

So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength )

We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote.
“Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z.

I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ?

Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd

Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level.
Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.”
So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.

Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )

This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right?

If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe.

So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ?
Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets.

Eur-usd implied Fed funds.

Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :
  • Both look strong on a monthly and weekly basis. If monthly candle closes above resistance i.e. 3.50 this month then we are looking past 4% Eur-usd implied fed funds
  • Stochastic Rsi on weekly and crossed and is heading up while on monthly they are about to cross and hover above for a while.
  • Pvt(O) on weekly looks promising as compared to monthly.
  • Both of them don’t wanna lose their lower green Ketlner band.

Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t.
( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )

Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds


Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries.

Weekly time frame analysis :
  • Weekly is gonna print bearish engulfing candle. Also there is a volume divergence. Price going up but volume going down which leads to fall. Trend line break candles will be the nail on the coffin.
  • Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading down.
  • Pvt(O) on weekly is also done after releasing supply and now will head down to accumulation..
  • Ketlner middle line changing band rejected the price action suggesting bearish continuation.

Monthly time frame analysis :
  • Monthly rejected its previous to previous top of the candle and is gonna print another st. down red monthly. Again price ascending volume declining.
  • But interestingly stochastic Rsi on monthly going up..
  • Pvt(O) on monthly also about to cross its blue line later sometimes.
  • As for Ketlner, well it's pretty much occupying the entire red lower band.

LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.

Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.

IEI/HYG : Double check below thing.

IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off )
IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on )

Weekly time frame analysis :
  • Weekly is about to print a bullish engulfing candle. Also volume isn’t supporting downwards move i.e. price is going down but volume is going down as well.
  • Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading up.
  • Can't comment about Pvt(O) weekly. Mixed signals
  • Ketlner middle line changing band supported the price action and is green. Meaning bullish continuation

Monthly time frame analysis :
  • No complete data on monthly that we can make assumptions.
  • But stochastic Rsi crossed on monthly and suggested going down.
  • Pvt(O) flat.
  • As for Ketlner, well we had rejection from an extremely bullish green band i.e. we haven't gotten permission for capitulation but we got support from middle Ketlner to make the price go up again.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.

Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.

Velocity of M2

This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it?

Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147

"The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website.

So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “

Result : “F off”

Step 7 : Gold

We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts.

Old man's Gold :
Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes.

Digital Gold :
As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.

Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG

Can you guys do this please?
Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK

Step 9 : US Oil.

Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days.
So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.

  • Releasing SPR ( i.e. Strategic petroleum reserve ) in the market.
  • Pressurizing Saudis to find oil. ( Btw Saudi Armaco alone made profits greater than all Usa mega cap tech combined )
  • Windfall taxes on Oil companies.
  • Distributing E.V. credits to people. But even E.V. companies are smart. They instead increase their price. Ford I mean what the f you guys are doing.

This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes.
“Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates"

You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like.

Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.

Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )

Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on.

J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m

Weekly time frame analysis :
  • The current weekly candle in both curves are going to close lower than previous week which could suggest further downside risk.
  • Stochastic Rsi on 10yr-3m looks flat dead whereas on 2yr-3m it looks like it is rising.
  • MacD in both of them is showing us that the downwards declining move is losing its strength.
  • As for Ketlner, well in both of them they are staying in the lower red band suggesting they are still in a bearish trend.

Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test.

Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes.

As for individual bonds and overall yield curve :

Bonds :
  • Well 10 yr yields looks so good on both weekly and monthly time frame. So we go up in yields.
  • 2 yr yields look so good on weekly and waiting for monthly close making it bullish. Meaning on September Fed is gonna be dead. ( Yields will rise meaning bond prices go down with stocks )
Note : Once again i'm telling yields is going up due to Eur-usd down i.e. Dxy up and markets front running 95B/m QT. We are quite unsure about rate hikes coz its nearly 50-50 b/w 50 and 75 bps. It will all depend on Cpi and Jobs data in September.

  • Institutions and Hf’s are also buying Chinese bonds like crazy or maybe Chinese themselves because of fear of recession and growth slowdown i.e. flight to safety trade. They have deflationary recession but the thing is they have balance sheet recession. So their government is creating a liquidity trap by cutting rates. But don't forget they can always do exuberance amount of liquidity coz they have very less inflation. In Usa you're getting rekt in both stocks and bonds.

Yield curve :
  • As for the entire yield curve here look at these beauties that Powell has created in these charts.

Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder

Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha.

Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.

Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.

I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position.
So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+.

Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.

Conclusion :

Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis.

So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon.
Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary.

Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market )

Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :
  • Dxy go up due to the mirror chart theory. ( 0.80-0.90 levels in eur-usd = 120 move in Dxy )

  • So now equities, commodities, metals and rest other asset class will fall down.

But what about bonds?

  • Well when the dollar strengthens then the countries who have dollar denominated debts have to sell their bonds and buy new bonds to refinance. Something like that. I think i butchered it. But yah it happens. Other reason being when dollar strengthens due to ext factors then its kinda like a rate hike. So since bonds don't like rate hike they sell off. Now add QT on top of it i.e 95B/m + Us treasury will issue more long term bonds and cut treasury bill issuance. So 10yr to 20yr bond yields will go up.
  • So now remains the case for 2yr bonds. The Fed will hike rates but it's kinda hinting that they won't go aggressive now coz they don't wanna overshoot and bring depression. Hence the 2yr bond will not go up more than the back end i.e. 10yr bond. Meaning us10y-us02y will move from inversion territory to steepening territory.
  • T-bills is getting bought more instead of rrp. Hence t-bills are trading below rrp. Meaning billionaires or banks fear about incoming liquidity crisis or collateral shortage. So t-bills it is or cashola. Or you could go to a money market fund and park your money there coz banks don't give you anything. Let's cause bank run together next year.

  • Also vix will pop up in this scenario due to asset classes being sold off

  • The velocity of m2 is gonna go up suggesting economy expands. Nope. Imo its suggesting dollar milkshake theory coz m2 is going down. Less dollars will be in circulation but exchanges will remain same. ( Long shot. I really don't know. Just guessing )

Final Result :

Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy.
P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read.

Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down?
*** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too.

Farewell :
Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations.
Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time.
( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time )

Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy.

With lots of love


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Where have all the millionaires gone

Where have all the millionaires gone submitted by angriafricanus to Kenya [link] [comments]

TAZ Livingtree Ep. 47: Gnome Problem, Guise - RECAP

Listen to the episode here
Woohoo, my first ever recap on this fine sub! Before we get started, a little bit about me:
The episode starts off with an ep. 46 recap that's a little disjointed - though how could it not be when it was wrapping up the fucking ocean arc. Bonus points for Justin being really engaged here - I assume because he got to ride Garyl 2.0, Trojan Horse Edition. Way to step it up, Juice. (God, I hope we see this Justin in Steeplechase.) They namedrop a couple big and small bads, the honey goblins (who I totally forgot about to be honest), King Triton & Queen Celine (whose voice-acting is best left forgotten), and The Masked One (Steeplechase foreshadowing, anyone?).
Griffin starts off the episode with a bang by mentioning that it's been over two months since they last recorded because they had to upgrade their mics and update the website. I assume that they had Griffin's nanny do this and also that the microphones have children of their own and were moving, which is why such a seemingly rudimentary process took so long.
Justin tells us that everything with Morganis has been resolved. Little bit of tell-not-show, but I know people were pretty critical of Morganis and they probably don't want a Grad redux so I'll let it slide. Morganis is alive and controlling a cult of sea druids into a "big ol' gang war against" the Tree Three which is, yikes, phrasing.
Travis Isadora casually drops that the Morganis thing isn't a huge deal because Morganis is a spy in the court of the Dragon Queen and Isadora is also coincidentally working for the Dragon Queen. Such an interesting way to make yourself the main character reveal backstory, Trav!
Justin puts a damper on Travis' wild self-insert fantasies (can they be called self-insert if you're literally one of the PCs? Idk, everything about Isadora feels so Mary Sue-ish to me) by saying they're gonna kill Morganis and the Dragon Queen anyway, so who cares.
Almost 3 minutes in, Clint speaks for the first time all episode to say that the Tree Three are gonna fight "some bad guys". Hang in there, Clint. Griffins chime in to add that the T3 have got a "big problem" with the Shadow Court getting more powerful. The whole crew reacts like Griffin has just dropped 10 minutes of Balance exposition. Tremendous immersive storytelling. Just tremendous.
They talk about leveling up without saying the words "leveling up". I guess we're leaning hard into the "cooperative storytelling" vs. D&D vibe. Isadora has fire magic now. Why?! You live in a tree! Mary Sue moment counter: 2.
Justin, in true Justin fashion, mentions that he's not sure whether or not Mack can use magic. You would think 47 episodes in he would've figured this out by now, but that's TAZ for ya. He's "pretty sure" Nuts can.
Clint says Nuts can also breathe fire. I am unclear whether or not this is a joke.
Mack is now "more powerful" than Isadora. Travis is shaking and crying in a corner. Griffin reminds us of the uncomfortable semi-incestuous PC ship Mackadora while also using the word "lover". My skin crawls like a bunch of Mack's bees are dancing on it.
We're talking character motivations:
To get closer to the city where the prison is, we're going to the Root Canals. Travis makes a terrible, unfunny joke about rooting through someone's butt. No one laughs.
On the plus side, we're back in the forest. They can hear gnawing noises under the Livingtree and need to investigate what's causing the sound. Griffin narrates Justin's character's thought process for him in a Vart-like moment of railroading. Travis interrupts any possibility of fun investigation or clue-finding by leveraging Isadora's until-now dormant telepathy. Mary Sue moment counter: 3.
Gnawing sounds are coming from fungus-covered mounds of dirt. Isadora uses fire-sense without rolling to find out where the sound is coming from. Mary Sue moment counter: 4.
Behind the dirt, they find a "weirdo" gnome with a mushroom for a head. He is ... the Mushroom Man. He is both wearing a tiny leather outfit and looks like a baby that's been left in the bath too long. Huh ... okay!
Mack tries to invite the Mushroom Man to a party tonight. He calls the other two of the Tree Heroes his friends who are also his cousins. I am hoping that's not canon because good lord does that make Mackadora even weirder than it already is.
The Mushroom Man runs. Mack interprets this as a signal he wants to go to the party. Isadora grabs him by the legs to stop him (without rolling). Clint expresses dubiousness at this. Mary Sue moment counter: 5. Clint shade counter: 2.
Justin suggests Isadora light their new friend/prospective party guest on fire. Clint objects. Griffin is fine with the gang going full murderhobo.
Isadora casts fireball (without rolling) on the Mushroom Man. Nuts begs Mack to stop her. He does not. I don't know if this counts as a Mary Sue moment because frankly it's just kind of randomly evil, and I thought Isadora's alignment was lawful good? Mack tries to retroactively justify this by saying the Mushroom Man was going to capture them. I thought he was running away?
Nuts is apparently multi-classing as a paladin. That or Justin forgot his teammate's class again; either is equally likely.
The Mushroom Man unceremoniously dies without so much as a line of dialogue. F in the chat for our least-interesting NPC yet.
What to do with the body?
Nuts: "We can't just leave him here because we have to--"
Mack: "Loot him."
This got a chuckle out of me.
They search the body anyway and find no treasure except the Mushroom Man's spongy, decrepit skull.
Griffin invites Justin to engage in the story by asking him if he remembers the name of the leader of the Gnomes in the Root Canals from the last time he was there. Justin declines. He does remember that the guy had a name, though. Also, he was kind of a jerk. Evidence of him being a jerk: the Tree Three saved his life and he said his home was open to them anytime. Starting to think it's not the Gnome Leader who's the jerk here.
Justin suggests that the gnomes invite the Tree Heroes in to "eat and drink and make fun of us for being so poor and sad". This got another laugh from me. I won't start another counter because I'm gay and math is hard. Griffin "no, ands" by saying the Mushroom Man was the gnomes' leader and now they're pissed and coming after the T3 with spears.
Apparently the Mushroom Man is a throwback to a character from the Underdark arc? Are they ... talking about the slime mold gnome? Griffin knows that slime molds aren't mushrooms, doesn't he? Apparently not because now he's calling the Mushroom Man "the Fungus Man". Mycologists everywhere burst into tears.
Apparently the Root Canals are a classic puzzle/dungeon crawl setup. Fans of actual D&D will, I assume, be delighted.
Travis Isadora: "Why would they stab someone who looks like me?"
Mary Sue moment counter: 6. We're 12 minutes in. That's 1 MSM every 120 seconds.
Clint Nuts: "Well, they might stab you because you just killed their boss."
Clint shade counter: 3.
Mack wants to investigate the gnawing sound. Nuts wants to get a good fight going. Or is it Clint? It's hard to tell when he never uses a character voice. There's a door into the Root Canal with multiple pathways. Griffin tells Clint to roll a D20 without telling him what it's a check for; I assume investigation. We're 14 minutes into the episode and this is the first time they've rolled a die. Clint succeeds with a 21 but they don't mention what his modifier was. Despite it being an excellent roll, all the knowledge he gets from this is that the noise is "someone chewing" and that the teeth sound sharp. I don't know how teeth sound sharp but this is a fantasy podcast so we'll move right along.
We're in the Root Canal. First room is a huge cavern full of gnomes who point at our heroes and run away. Griffin asks what they think the gnomes might be doing. Theories:
Mack: They're trying to get them lost.
Isadora: "Why would they be doing that?"
Nuts: "Probably to steal our stuff."
Clint shade counter: 4.
Isadora casts Light. We hear dice rolling but no numbers. The light shines on the gnomes and shows they're coming from a couple hundred feet deeper. The gnomes are all in a row, staring at them, and making terrified goat noises.
The gnomes have no items of value. Griffin narrates that Isadora can tell why the gnomes are scared. She can sense magical auras coming off all of them. Mary Sue moment counter: 7.
Isadora casts Blink and enters the darkness with the gnomes. They're all still glowing with magic. Clint and/or Nuts is yelling, "What's going on? What's going on?" The gnomes are actually hobgoblins under an illusion, and they're guarding the entrance while searching for something small on the ground.
Travis helpfully informs the audience that hobgoblins are "like goblins and orcs got drunk and had a party." I don't know if this is accurate. Clint groans but I can't tell if it's derisive or just general old man noise.
Justin wants to disable the hobgoblins with spells. Travis recites his stats: 18 Con, 16 Cha, 16 Int, 17 Wis. I'm sure he rolled those using real, actual dice under observed conditions!
Travis: "And I'm also the one who does most of the talking and casting."
No comment.
Travis wants to cast Blink to slow the hobgoblins down. I thought he just used Blink to travel into the dark part of the cave? Is this me or the McElroys misunderstanding how a spell is used? I'm going to guess the McElroys.
Justin describes Travis as "low intelligence, high charisma." Griffin and Travis agree that he's a charming guy and charismatic dude. Clint adds that he has a charisma score "higher than Clint's". This means Clint is a character in Livingtree? TAZ Multiverse theory confirmed!
Isadora can only cast Blink for 7 seconds and now she can feel herself getting weaker. This is both the first time I've heard them mention time constraints for spells and Travis experiencing any adverse effects on this podcast.
We haven't rolled initiative, but it seems like we're in combat now. Nuts grabs the approaching hobgoblins and turns into a giant walking tree with tons of legs and just starts running through the cave punting hobgoblins left and right. Gotta say I'm loving this mental image.
Mack knows he has to do something, so he runs out of the cave. Mack's good out here apparently.
Nuts creates a huge wooden trident made of branches using tree magic and throws it at the hobgoblins, sending one of them tumbling. This is the longest Travis has ever gone without speaking during a combat sequence, I think.
Hobgoblins pursue Mack and corner him at the edge of a cliff. Is it really considered cornering if you're at the edge of something? Shouldn't it be called, I don't know, "edging"? That's not anything yet, right?
Griffin narrates that Nuts goes to guard Mack, forming a wooden wall between him and the hobgoblins. Awesome player agency, Griff! The hobgoblins surround Nuts, blocking off his exits too, and then attack. Nuts tries to talk his way out of this by saying he's just trying to kill them.
Mack breathes fire on the hobgoblins. Guess he does have magic! (Side note: why are we all using fire magic inside a tree?!) The hobgoblins fly up into the air on fire and are defeated.
Mack runs past the other players. Griffin tells us that he is happy. I know I just said this, but awesome player agency, Griff!
"Everyone knows that Mac is the most powerful player in the group now." We hear a suspicious noise that might be Travis cracking a molar from gritting his teeth so hard.

Commercial break!

This week's sponsor is Raytheon. Is TAZ ... financed by the military industrial complex now? All I can say is that at least our Good Good Boys sound suitably uncomfortable with advertising literal missiles and drones. Including Justin, who apparently received a promotional drone but keeps it in his garage because he feels awkward using it in public. You know what might make you feel less awkward about this? Not accepting checks from a company that produces weapons of mass destruction! They have to keep reassuring us that whatever they're advertising is not a weapon; it's a drone. And we thought the loan shark ads were bad.
At the bottom of the cliff they're standing on is a body that's fallen. Isadora casts Levitate to hover down and get a closer look at it. Dice roll, but no numbers are spoken. In an effort to avoid describing a face or any humanoid features that might be critiqued as racially insensitive, all Griffin tells us is that the body is wearing blue robes and that its face is blurred out and the body looks "melted". He also says that the body is a guy, and "we all know what a guy looks like, right?" In trying to avoid one pitfall, Griffin has instead stumbled into my gender trap! A Twitter callout thread shall be forthcoming! Anyway, the guy has a wound in his leg, too. He looks like "someone just took a spell to him and he exploded."
Mack wants to create constructs to have a look around. After much debate, they settle on spy bees. Again.
Wait, instead of using the spy bees for recognizance, the T3 want to use them to kill more hobgoblins. Sayeth Clint, "What if we had them attack the hobgoblins in their sleep, so they would wake up and the first thing they'd see is a bunch of bees crawling in their bed. Then they would just go 'Fuck!' and die instantly."
Griffin reminds us that Mack used the bees during the Worm Tree fight to create a big bee bomb, lampshading that Mack is a bit of a one-trick pony.
Justin wants to make a hundred bees, but can only summon 38 despite scoring 25 on his dex check. Even the original goal actually ... seems like a surprisingly small number of bees to attack multiple hobgoblins? For reference, the original Candyman film used more than 200,000 bees on set. I could not turn up in a quick Google search how many bees were needed for the Nic Cage Wicker Man "The bees! The beeees!" scene, which is the comparison I originally wanted to use.
It's going to take Mack an hour to make 38 bees. This is the 2nd time in the entire podcast I've heard them mention how long it takes to cast something! Are they ... learning? Improving? No! The jerk must go on.
The T3 make camp at the edge of the woods to give Mack enough time to cast up some bees. And to ruminate on their bad deeds, because they've just remembered how they brutally murdered the poor, innocent Mushroom/Slime Mold/Fungus Man. Griffin retcons the Mushroom Man's original fiery death at Isadora's hands into an inevitability by saying he just ran around the forest like an elemental until he extinguished.
The Tree Heroes are now ransacking the Mushroom Man's few belongings. They eat his mushroom stew and drink his mushroom wine. I, for one, think mushrooms are delicious. Justin apparently agrees with me.
Travis hopes that the mushroom wine will have some sort of psychogenic effect that makes you want to kill people. Are we returning to the dark days of unexpected drugging in Grad? Griffin says no, it's just regular wine ... except your face will turn into a fungus. Huh ... okay!
Skipping to the next day, they jump straight into combat. Honestly, I appreciate them eliding some of the more boring wandering and picking pathways, etc. Their next opponent is an ancient and powerful wizard who emerges from the ground. He says they can't get out of the Root Canals.
Wait, do they all still have fungus faces right now?
Clint rolls an unspecified saving throw and Griffin casually says, "and this is how you die", in a particularly dark moment of foreshadowing.
Nuts recognizes the wizard: it's Cringus Maw, back from the (implied) dead! Oh, shit! I actually clapped and did a little cheer like some sort of Fourth Brother at a TAZ liveshow when Angus says, "Hello, sirs!"
I take a brief break to go outside and touch grass. It's still a little wet out there from Hurricane Ian. Hope you all stayed safe, by the way.
I just want to say that re: Cringus Maw, I fucking called it. No body, no dead man! You always confirm with a body! Always!
In the most cringingly uncomfortable description of someone having a psychotic break I've ever heard, Griffin tells us that Cringus is "going through some stuff" and "has had a bit of a breakdown". He later describes this as Cringus' "mental health moment". Hey, guys? Maybe your goofy boner D&D podcast collaborative storytelling effort isn't the best place to try to tackle mental health stigma? Especially not when the guy with mental health "issues" is going around trying to eat people's souls (or do something ... worse to them?). Just saying.
Griffin actually takes the time to describe Cringus, but honestly he sounds like a combination between Gandalf, the Green Man, and--I know this is a deep cut, but--Dr. Pickell from the Wayside School series.
Griffin digs the ableism hole deeper by saying that Cringus is "kind of going crazy". The Tumblr kids will have your head for this one, Griffy boy.
Cringus and Nuts and Mack all know each other. Mack suggests they have a seat to talk, and then promptly says he sits on the floor in the corner because he doesn't want to talk to people. Travis describes this as "basically what happens when you go insane". The cringe has reached critical levels, boys.
In a weird, confessional moment, Justin describes his own mental health struggles using ... not the best language, but I'm not going to question someone's lived experience.
We experience the most abrupt jump-cut ever. Time to roll initiative.
And here we are: the moment that sparked 300 comments and more bans than the sub's history has ever seen in a single episode discussion thread: Nuts rolls initiative so badly that he dies. That's it. Just dies. No saves. No multiple attempts. A single roll, and he's shuffled from this mortal coil. I don't know enough about D&D mechanics to critique the way this plays out, but all I'll say is ... this is the moment Livingtree hit its stride.
Cue sad, dramatic music. Nuts is buried in a magical coffin that turns him into a skeleton. The coffin is placed in a tomb, which is closed with a huge, stone boulder. Getting Sunday School vibes here. My fingers are crossed that this is foreshadowing that on the third day, Nuts will be resurrected, but a) this is the McElroys and it's foolish to think such a thing might be pre-planned and b) it's probably a little sacrilegious for them, even though I would find it funny.
Mack is pretty bummed about the loss of Nuts. There is no discussion of Isadora's reaction, which I guess is fair since she really only seems to care about Mack and her brother. The silver lining apparently is that Nuts' death means that the next time an adventuring party enters the Root Canal, there are still plenty of bad guys for them to fight, since our heroes never finished the dungeon! ... Yay?
Griffin describes tears: "You know those big wet drops that fall down your face that make you feel like you could cry forever if it weren't for the fact you can wipe them away in less than 10 seconds?" This is senior quote material on par with "You're going to be amazing."
Other choice quotes from the Nuts' death scene:
"What does this have to do with me?" "You're the one who died from rolling so bad."
"How do I get the tears to stop? They're a slippery mess, man!"
Honestly this scene is funnier than the first 30 episodes of Grad combined.
Griffin rolls Clint up a new character. He's either a dragon-mancer or a mage who can turn into a snake. 18 STR, 9 DEX, 16 CHA. But only 3 HP. Griffin says "That's actually a lot for a first-level character".
Post-episode debrief:
I'm glad they've added these little sections, even though they're a bit table talk-y. It's a lot nicer than the mandatory dramatic cliffhanger and ties the episode up nicely while giving us something to look forward to next time.
High points from each McelBoy:
Clint liked what happened with Cringus and can't wait to see him turn into an orcish princess next week. God, I hope that's handled in a non-transphobic way. Yeesh.
Griffin likes that we finally understand why Cringus can't stop the sea druids from taking over his homeland: not that he's weak, but that the sea druids are corrupt assholes who are taking advantage of him, and that's the Cringus we know and love. "Love" is a strong word after this episode, but okay.
Travis liked Mack's reaction when he was surrounded by the hobgoblins, that he ran away first before using his father's fire magic to burn the hobgoblins.
Justin explains that Mack wasn't afraid of falling off the cliff when he was cornered because he's a bug, but that they're in a "fantasy world" where the act of jumping off a cliff means certain death. I guess that's what was implied by the melted dead guy at the bottom of the cliff? This isn't really a "like". All I can say is "Huh ... okay!"
Griffin delivers what I assume are some scalding hot takes about Doctor Who. I was never part of the Superwholock side of Tumblr so I can't comment on this one way or another.
Travis tells us they'll be at New York Comic Con "rolling a bunch of dice and having fun". Both seem unlikely.
And finally, in the no-holds-barred peak "Why didn't they edit this shit out" moment, after the ending credits, we hear Travis asking Griffin for a hug.
Griffin: "What? No. I don't do hugs."
Travis then, heart-breakingly, asks if he can at least have a high five.
Griffin: "No."
Travis: "Okay, all right."
If nothing confirms that they don't edit these episodes at all, it's that.
Overall episode rating: 5/10. Pretty solid plot and some actual combat and play with a minimum of groan-worthy Travis jokes. Actually, Travis didn't talk that much at all in the second half of the episode (up until the moment I shall speak no more of), which really improved things. I took off points for Nuts' unceremonious death. It came out of left field, didn't feel earned, and the character reactions were really disingenuous. Additional points were docked for the cringe-inducing "mental health issues" of Cringus Maw.
And with this, the Jerk Ourobouros is complete.
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My Personal Punishment: a recap of Carrey On: Rubberface

As stated in the last lottery post, the punishment for failure is to recap Carrey On, the obscure Travis project on YouTube. I did not win the lottery, and so I’ve taken this as a personal failure and will punish myself accordingly.
A personal anecdote to start; I don’t like Jim Carrey.
The Setup
I thought this was a podcast, but instead it is a video series that only ran for 4 (5?) videos on YouTube. The year is 2017. Our middlest brother sets off on a journey to do a film by film review of Jim Carrey’s career. I may not be a fan, but I’m pretty sure he featured in more than 4 films.
The first instalment is about Jim Carrey’s first film, a direct-to-TV movie called “Introducing… Janet” that was renamed “Rubberface” when released on DVD after Jim Carrey’s career took off. It’s a 9 minute, 19 second video. There are 12k views, 334 likes, 39 comments of varying levels of McElnoise praise.
The Recap 0:00 - The intro song is a cover of Carry on Wayward Son by Kansas; I’m unsure if Travis chose this for the pun in Carry/Carrey or because the song features prominently in Supernatural during each finale.
0:08 - We are welcomed by Travis, who is rocking what I would call a Wet Bandit from Home Alone but they also work as a barista; he’s wearing a beanie and has a full, well groomed beard.
0:09 - Oh god I just noticed the word ‘Piss’ on his shirt; this must be the ill-fated shirt he wore when meeting up to star in Trolls. I assume he recorded this immediately after.
0:30 - Introduction.
0:40 - Apparently Jim Carrey barely stars in his first movie.
0:47 - The film was as hard to find as it was to watch, sorta like this YouTube series (got ‘em).
0:51 - Travis had to watch all 47 minutes of this film at 1.5 speed because the pacing was “absolutely atrocious”, sorta like an episode of TAZ (got ‘em).
0:59 - A ‘quick’ synopsis of the film begins, which, spoiler, is essentially the entire video.
1:14 - This happens when Travis stumbles on the word synopsis: “Synopsesease, synopses, synopsisis”. He says them in increasingly goofy tones. I have also become aware that this video is not edited at all.
1:20 - “All of the characters refer to her (Janet) as overweight, but she looks perfectly normal to me.”
1:54 - Still listing how normal Janet is, but he goes to refer to a piece of paper in front of him and seems to lose track for a second. 8 hours of editing or some beeping noises could have fixed this.
1:58 - A plot point of the film is that there is a final writing assignment worth 50% of the total grade and Travis is very baffled by it. I’m not sure how schools work in the US, but during my time at university in Australia this would happen commonly each semester, and I would spend way too much time calculating the minimum grade I needed to pass the course.
2:30 - The only comment on this video that is close to a criticism is this: “Ironically, Travis speaks so slowly I had to watch this video at 1.25 speed.” This is very true for this section as he continues to be confused about grading systems and calls it “irresponsible” and “bad teaching.”
3:10 - Teacher in film makes Janet read out loud one of her writings to the class and makes her cry. Travis observes that this is what bad people do.
3:35 - Travis blunders the introduction of Jim Carrey so he starts referring to Jim Carrey as Jim Character for the entire rest of the video.
3:50 - Jim’s character is a janitor who works at a comedy club named Tony Moroni. Middle McElroy doesn’t think this is a real persons name.
4:35 - Middle McElroy goes on a tangent about how up-coming comedians are portrayed in films as having jokes we appreciate, but the audience in the film does not, however this film makes a “bold choice” by making Tony’s material not funny. He does not clarify if this is done on purpose or not and calls it “bad writing”.
4:55 - We should assume that the film is a comedy because Jim Carrey is in it, but it’s not funny so it’s bad.
6:00 - Bizarrely, it seems that Middle McElroy is trying to avoid spoiling this film because he hasn’t referenced any particular scenes, quotes or acting. He mentions that the relationship between Janet and Tony isn’t clear and that “the movie tried to make it a thing at one point” but does not give any further details.
6:40 - Middle McElroy has been explaining a scene that was unrelated to the original point he made about the relationship stuff. I won’t describe it because I’m sick of describing things from this bad movie.
7:00 - Spoilers for the entire ending of the film. Don’t worry about it, it’s not interesting. Middle McElroy thinks a 15 minute spot at a comedy club is absurd and that he “knows many stand-up comics”. I don’t so I’ll take his word for it.
7:55 - Actual end of the synopsis. Middle McElroy ends it on a “um… yeah” that goes on for about 5 seconds.
8:10 - Review on Jim Carrey; funnily enough he was “very restrained” in HIS FIRST MOVIE.
8:20 - Middle McElroy wants to “slap them (Jim Carrey) and say be yourself!” I’m now no longer sure if he’s talking about the actor or the character at this point.
8:40 - Middle McElroy gives the film a 2/10 for pacing and bad writing (much like TAZ after Amnesty, got ‘em). He literally has not said anything else about the film other than his confusion about the films intent and his own experiences. No discussion of themes or motifs, just “she seemed normal to me!”
9:01 - Outro, that’s it, that’s the review, 2/10.
9:05 - Middle McElroy says the words “I’m ready, to carry on” and pulls a face in such a way I imagine he does when he says “manners schmanners, get it?”
9:09 - Kansas plays us out for the end.
Less a review of Jim Carrey’s career and more a play-by-play of the film with a numerical score tacked onto the end. I’m unsure of why Middle McElroy wanted to start here for his series and not with a more noticeable Jim Carrey first performance.
I give it a 2/10.
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[r/IndiaSpeaks - Vyakarana] - Economic Policy - The politics behind petrol

[IndiaSpeaks - Vyakarana] - Economic Policy - The politics behind petrol
A short intro to this post series
Hi All,
We're starting this post series that will focus on economics, policy, current affairs and politics to a certain extent from a data backed lens. The idea is to critically analyze, using relevant data, topics that citizens should ideally know and understand. The topics covered will be wide and varied.

The politics behind petrol
The price of petrol and diesel – Why is it so high?
The price of petrol and the price of diesel has been going steady like the VVS Laxman and Rahul Dravid partnership in the fabled Eden Garden test match; and just like that partnership, there does not seem to be any let up. Prices of fuel in India seem like an anomaly when compared to the prices in our neighbourhood. Its often makes for an interesting comparison article where people compare the prices of petrol across our neighbours and show how “costly” it is here.
While the price of petrol is always known to be high due to duties, it is very important to analyze why and what impact these duties have on the economy.
First, lets start off by analyzing and breaking down the price of petrol and where it goes. The table below shows the breakdown of taxes and duties for 1 litre of petrol in Delhi (oct 2021):

Split of petrol and diesel prices and its cess
As you can see, around 31% of the price of petrol goes to the central government while around 23% goes to the state government. This effectively means that around 54% - 60% of the cost of fuel goes to the government. So remember, the next time you fill a litre of petrol, you’re effectively giving 60% of the fuel price to the government as a tax.
An interesting aside to note here is that Fuel and Alcohol (consequently two cash cows for many a government) is interestingly out of the purview… likely because the GST rate stops at 28%... but that is an article for another day.
The history of pricing of petrol and diesel
Historically, India did not have a free market pricing for petrol and diesel. Petrol and diesel would be imported by the government and the government would set the price that would be payable by the citizens for using it. The advantage of this method of pricing lies in the fact that the government can choose to keep prices somewhat stable and protect the citizens from random shocks in prices that affected petrol prices during OPEC shutdowns (refer to the US petrol crisis in the mid 1960s). However, the disadvantage is that when prices continuously increase, the government will go into debt if they do not commensurately increase the price of petrol/diesel.
Backdrop in 2004 and economic impact of oil
The 2004 year ended with spiralling petrol prices due to supply related crunches. The price of crude, which was around $36 a barrel, skyrocketed to $57 a barrel. The price of oil kept increasing due to supply side constraints.
The problem with increasing oil for India meant a couple of things:
  1. Increased cost of purchasing for the Indian government – Imagine a company charging 100 rs to a customer but buying the input goods at Rs. 120. – Refer to table 1
  2. Flow of forex – India imports 99% of its energy from various countries. Any purchase of energy happens in USD. When there’s an increase in purchase, there’s an increase in demand for USD, which also ends up depreciating the rupee.
  3. Rise in prices will increase input costs for production, which directly results in a higher amount of inflation
  4. Which then depreciates the currency further in a very vicious cycle.
The curious case of the oil bonds
The government of India therefore decided to issue the infamous “Oil Bonds” in order to plug the gap between the total collections from citizens the additional gap. The issue? This is debt. And debt has to be repaid in the future.
The government effectively pushed the problem to the future generations for their current consumption. This was effectively mentioned by Dr. Manmohan Singh, the then PM in the quote:
“However, I would like the nation to remember that issuing bonds and loading deficits on oil companies is not a permanent solution to this problem. We are only passing on our burden to our children who will have to repay this debt” – Dr. Manmohan Singh 4th Jan 2008
What initially started off as a Rs. 9000 cr oil bond in 2005 swelled into a Rs. 1.4 lac crore problem for the government in 2014.
The total interest payments alone come to close to 1.3 lac crores since the year 2011 (see table below). The table below shows the amount of principal and interest payments that have been paid since 2011 and the expected settlement patterns of the loans.

Settlement patterns for oil bonds (E is marked by Expected settlement pattern)
*Table showing current and expected settlement of oil bonds
**Source – Union budget of India (receipts)
The last of the oil bonds will be settled in 2026.
Inputs != outputs
The idea of the oil bonds was simple. The government of India raises bonds for capital today (which was used to purchase oil and subsidize it for the citizens) in lieu of a payment of interest over the course of the tenure of the bond and eventual repayment of capital (not very dissimilar to a loan taken for paying your house).
Curiouser and curiouser still is the receipts from duties. One would expect the duties to add up to the interest + principal component of the loan. Think of duties here as the EMI that you pay to your house (it’s not an accurate comparison, but it’s late in the night and this is the best I could come up with). You take a 10 lac loan to buy a house at a 7% interest rate from a bank; you would ideally expect to pay only the principal + interest in the EMIs.
However, it’s very interesting to note that the duties and surcharges are in fact much, much higher than the actual bond itself. In fact, the duties and surcharges in the 2022-23 budget (which is receipts collected in 2020-21) is in fact greater than the actual principal + interest that is due.

Breakdown of tax revenue in a budget and the corresponding cess in petrol and diesel collected
Split of revenue and share of petrol and diesel cess
**Source – Union budget of India (receipts)

Graph of share of cess/duties in petrol and diesel to overall tax revenue
Graph showing the share of petrol and diesel cess to the overall tax revenue
One can easily infer from the table and graph on the events that have transpired:
  1. Duties on fuel as a % of the total tax revenue have gone from an average 3% until 2017 to an average of around 8% since
  2. The trend of duties has been increasing – This could be due to the fact that our consumption of oil has increased since 2010 (which attributes to economic growth)... So while the duties as a % of petrol price have not changed, we are consuming a lot more petrol, leading to absolute increases in duties collected
So effectively, while oil prices have been decreasing from the mammoth prices that we saw back in the early 2010s, the Indian populace has not had a chance to enjoy the falling oil prices. Oil prices (according to nasdaq’s website) have fallen from a price of $111 per barrel on 31/12/2011 to $42 on 31/12/2020.
The share of collections on petrol and diesel duties has been steadily increasing from 2014. One can clearly see a huge increase from the 2016-17 numbers and the 2017-18 numbers where the share of duties as a % of tax revenue has doubled. The share has reached a mammoth 13.43% of all tax revenues collected.
The cess that was initially supposed to cover only the interest and principal payments of the bonds that were floated has now morphed into a source of revenue for the government. What is very interesting to note is that the total cess collected as per the 2022-23 budget (which show the numbers collected in 2020-21) show that the absolute value of the cess (rs. 1.92 lac crores) is greater than the total principal + interest amount that is actually due (which is a little short of 1.37 lac crores). This is somewhat like your bank collecting the entire loan amount and then some in a single year.
What can be inferred from this
A couple of things really:
  1. The cess on petrol is now just another source of revenue for the government now. Petrol/Diesel have proven to be a perfectly inelastic product, i.e., the demand for petrol/diesel will continue to be the same regardless of the price. We might complain and scream and shout, but at the end of the day we’ll pay for the petrol… and the Indian government is making bank on this.
  2. The money collected from the cess is now used as a revenue and one would hope that the money actually gets spent on actual development of roads, which seems unlikely because we’re continuing to pay tolls on the roads even with this cess. A good follow up analysis would be where the money is actually being used.
  3. An idealistic way of thinking of this situation is the government imposing a “carbon tax” on petrol and diesel effectively trying to wean the public off petrol/diesel and switch to alternative methods (CNG/Electric/Hydrogen). This in my opinion seems like a far cry because there’s been very little done in the alternative fuel infrastructure to date.
  4. No political will – The politicians on both sides of the isle do not have any political will to change this status quo. Remember that today’s opposition is tomorrow’s government. So why would any opposition party raise this issue only to have a 13% shortfall in revenues tomorrow? As long as inflation rates are in control, and as long as revenue is being received, everyone is happy. This is also likely why the government has no incentive (both state and central) to bring Petrol/Diesel into the ambit of GST (since they’d have to then cap the cess or change the GST rates which could open up a can of worms)

Source for data: Multiple union budget documents taken from the website (
submitted by galeej to IndiaSpeaks [link] [comments]

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